基于滑坡灾害预警分级的应急处置措施

覃瀚萱; 桂蕾; 余玉婷; 李登华

doi:10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2021.0412

基于滑坡灾害预警分级的应急处置措施

doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2021.0412

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 41601563

国家重点研发计划 2017YFC0405005

详细信息

作者简介:
覃瀚萱(1998-), 女, 现正攻读资源与环境专业硕士学位, 主要从事滑坡灾害风险研究工作。E-mail: 928078883@qq.com

通讯作者:
桂蕾(1986-), 女, 讲师, 主要从事滑坡灾害风险研究工作。E-mail: lei.gui@cug.edu.cn

中图分类号: P642.22
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- 文章访问数: 1051
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-12-04

Emergency measures based on early warning classification of landslide

Qin Hanxuan^1
,,
Gui Lei^{1
, ,},
Yu Yuting¹,
Li Denghua²

摘要

摘要: 滑坡灾害应急处置能力是地质灾害减灾防灾的重要方面。目前，基于滑坡灾害预测和预警分级成果，系统性的应急措施分类研究还鲜有展开，因此，以三峡库区白水河滑坡为例，运用时间序列加法模型将滑坡累计位移分解为趋势项位移与周期项位移，并分别应用多项式拟合及自回归（AR）模型对2个分量进行预测，在此结果上采用聚类分析方法将滑坡变形分为匀速变形与加速变形阶段，综合判断滑坡灾害预警等级，开展了针对滑坡预警分级的应急措施研究。结果表明：白水河滑坡预警等级主要为蓝色和黄色2种类型，对处于不同的预警等级下的滑坡，可根据滑坡变形特征快速决策，基于滑坡灾害预测和预警分级结果能更有效地指导滑坡应急处置。
- 滑坡 /
- 应急措施 /
- 位移预测 /
- 监测预警 /
- 时间序列
Abstract: The emergency disposal ability of landslide disaster is an important aspect of disaster reduction and prevention of geological disasters.At present, few systematic studies on the classification of emergency measures are based on landslide disaster prediction and early warning classification results, therefore, take the Baishuihe landslide as an example, time series additive model is decomposed into trend term displacement and periodic term displacement, and use of polynomial fitting and autoregressive (AR) model to forecast the two components, on the results by using clustering analysis method the landslide deformation is divided into uniform deformation and accelerating stage.The emergency measures of landslide warning classification are studied.The results show that the warning grades of Baishuihe landslide are mainly blue and yellow.For the landslide under different warning grades, rapid decision can be made according to the deformation characteristics of landslide, and the landslide emergency disposal can be guided more effectively based on the prediction of landslide disaster and the warning classification results.
- landslide /
- emergency measures /
- displacement prediction /
- monitoring and early warning /
- time series

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图 1 应急处置措施选择流程图

Figure 1. Flow chart for selection of emergency response measures

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图 2 白水河滑坡GPS监测点布置平面图^[14]

Figure 2. Layout plan of GPS monitoring points of Baishuihe landslide

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图 3 白水河滑坡剖面图^[14]

Figure 3. Cross-section of Baishuihe landslide

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图 4 滑坡累计位移、降雨量以及库水位监测

Figure 4. Monitoring of cumulative displacement, rainfall and reservoir water level

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图 5 白水河滑坡趋势项位移曲线

Figure 5. Trend term displacement curve of Baishuihe landslide

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图 6 白水河滑坡周期项位移曲线

Figure 6. The periodic term displacement curve of Baishuihe landslide

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图 7 白水河滑坡趋势项位移提取值与预测值对比

Figure 7. Comparison of extracted value and predicted value of trend term displacement of Baishuihe landslide

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图 8 白水河滑坡周期项位移提取值与预测值对比

Figure 8. Comparison of extracted and predicted values of the periodic term displacement of Baishuihe landslide

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图 9 白水河滑坡累计位移实测值与预测值对比

Figure 9. Comparison of measured and predicted cumulative displacement of the Baishuihe landslide

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图 10 白水河滑坡变形等级划分及预警等级判别

Figure 10. Grade classification and early warning classification of Baishuihe landslide deformation

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表 1 滑坡预警等级判别^{[9, 13]}

Table 1. Landslide warning level discrimination

预警等级	蓝色	黄色	橙色	红色
级别	注意级	警示级	警戒级	警报级
变形阶段	匀速	初加速	中加速	临滑
是否有变形迹象	有变形迹象	有明显变形	有短期临滑前兆	短期临滑前兆特征显著
是否属于汛期	否	进入汛期	正值汛期	正值汛期
灾害可能发生时间	几年内	几月至一年内	几天至几月内	几小时至几天内
短期失稳可能性	不大	一般	很大	基本确定发生

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表 2 滑坡灾害应急处置措施与监测预警等级的关系

Table 2. Relationship between emergency measures and monitoring and early warning level of landslide disaster

应急措施建议	蓝色预警	黄色预警	橙色预警	红色预警
灾害发生前	(1)群测群防为主，局部变形区布设专业监测设备，关注地表变形迹象和监测数据，及时发布预警信息； (2)完善应急预案； (3)有条件的灾害点可开展搬迁避让动员或滑坡常规治理论证	(1)专业监测为主，局部变形区加密监测设备，关注监测数据，同时，加强滑坡现场巡视和排查，及时发布预警信息； (2)评估滑坡及其次生灾害影响范围，响应应急预案； (3)开展滑坡区人员撤离动员和演练； (4)开展应急治理：削方减载、堆载压脚、快速支挡、锚固、固体和排水	(1)“天-空-地”多源立体监测为主，关注监测数据，及时发布预警信息； (2)划定滑坡及其次生灾害影响范围，响应应急预案； (3)撤离滑坡区人员与财产，准备封锁重要交通线路； (4)开展应急治理：堆载压脚、快速支挡、排水	(1)“天-空-地”多源立体监测为主，加密监测频率，关注监测数据，及时发布预警信息； (2)划定滑坡及其次生灾害影响范围，响应应急预案； (3)快速撤离滑坡及其次生灾害影响范围内人员与财产，封锁交通线路； (4)评估滑坡临滑时间； (5)开展应急治理：堆载压脚、排水
灾害发生后	(1)制定专项工程抢险措施，立即快速搜救和转移人员； (2)评估灾害危险区范围，设置警示标志，避免灾害二次伤害； (3)开展应急监测，密切关注应急监测数据，及时发布预警信息； (4)根据实际需要开展滑坡常规治理	(1)制定专项工程抢险措施，立即快速搜救和转移人员； (2)评估灾害及其次生灾害危险区范围，设置警示标志，避免灾害二次伤害； (3)开展应急监测，密切关注应急监测数据，及时发布预警信息； (4)开展应急治理：削方减载、堆载压脚、快速支挡、锚固、固体和排水	(1)制定专项工程抢险措施，立即快速搜救和转移人员，并随时准备撤离搜救人员； (2)划定灾害及其次生灾害危险区范围，加强警示宣传，避免灾害二次伤害； (3)开展应急监测，密切关注应急监测数据，及时发布预警信息； (4)开展应急治理：堆载压脚、快速支挡、排水	(1)快速撤离滑坡及其次生灾害影响范围内人员(含搜救人员)与财产，封锁交通线路； (2)开展应急监测，密切关注应急监测数据，及时发布预警信息； (3)在确保人员安全前提下开展应急治理：堆载压脚、排水

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表 3 白水河滑坡趋势项位移多项式拟合结果

Table 3. Fitting result of displacement polynomial of trend term of Baishuihe landslide

	ZG118监测点					XD1监测点
	a	b	c	d	R²	a	b	c	d	R²
φ₁	0.001	-0.003	13.030	83.100	0.999	-0.234	32.731	0.000	-470.319	0.998
φ₂	-0.153	2.416	48.646	585.686	0.999	-0.438	8.296	64.525	394.506	0.999
φ₃	0.005	-0.549	29.550	1 340.889	0.999	0.006	-0.775	49.206	1 710.907	0.999
注：φ(t)=at³+bt²+ct+d

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