Landslide numerical forecasting mode based on physical- mechanical mechanism: Overviews, challenges and opportunities
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摘要:
滑坡预测预报是地质灾害防治领域长期以来备受关注的前沿科学问题。当前的研究框架专注于滑坡的变形行为特征与外动力因素, 面临着普适性不强与预报精准度不高的双重瓶颈问题。基于目前研究现状, 系统梳理了滑带流变力学行为与强度弱化效应的内涵, 阐述了滑坡渐进破坏演化机制, 总结了滑坡预测预报模型所包含的类型, 并介绍了其中的典型模型, 指出当前研究主要存在如下问题: ①滑坡演化物理力学模型尚需扩展; ②预测预报模型未能充分结合滑坡演化过程和物理力学模型; ③物理力学模型预测与多场监测数据间的兼容性问题未能实际解决。针对上述问题, 阐述了基于物理力学过程的滑坡预测预报所面临的挑战, 并立足多学科融合与交叉, 提出了开展滑坡预测预报研究的新思路。新思路要求从滑坡滑带介质特性与流变力学行为出发, 建立滑坡演化过程物理力学模型, 紧密结合实时多场监测数据, 建立滑坡数值预报模式, 实现滑坡物理力学过程实时动态更新, 以期实现理论与技术的突破。
Abstract:Landslide forecasting and prediction is a frontier scientific issue that has received widespread attention in the field of geohazard prevention and control. The current research framework focuses on the deformation behavior characteristics and external dynamic factors of landslides and faces the dual bottleneck problems of low universality and low prediction accuracy.Based on the current research status, this paper systematically clarifies the connotation of the rheological-mechanical behavior and strength weakening effect of the sliding zone, explicates the evolution mechanism of the progressive failure of the landslide, summarizes the types of landslide prediction models, and introduces the typical models among them.Based on the comprehensively existing achievements, it is pointed out that the main problems of the current research are: ①the physical-mechanical models of landslide evolution are required to be extended; ②the prediction and forecasting models fail to fully integrate with landslide evolution and physical-mechanical model; ③the compatibility problem between physical-mechanical model prediction and multi-field monitoring data have not been practically solved. Given the above problems, the challenges of landslide prediction and forecasting models based on physical-mechanical processes are elaborated. Based on multidisciplinary integration and intersection, a new research strategy for landslide forecasting study is proposed. The new strategy requires the establishment of a physical-mechanical model of the landslide evolution process based on the structural properties and rheological-mechanical behavior of the slip zone. On this basis, a numerical forecasting mode for landslides is established by closely integrating real-time multi-field monitoring data that enables real-time dynamic updating of landslide physical-mechanical processes. This strategy is designed to achieve a theoretical and technical breakthrough.
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图 1 国家自然科学基金资助项目中每年有关“滑坡预测预报”的项目数量与资助金额(2010-2020年)
Figure 1. Number of projects related to "landslide prediction and forecasting" and the amount of funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (2010-2020)
图 3 滑带蠕变曲线与长期强度曲线概念图(修改自文献[54])
A中应力为σc的蠕变曲线并未呈现出加速蠕变阶段，此处采用蠕变变形极限值εf作为破坏准则，认为c点发生破坏
Figure 3. Conceptual diagram of slip zone soil creep curve and long-term strength curve
图 4 锁固段变形破坏过程与滑坡蠕变阶段对应关系(修改自文献[90])
体积膨胀起点C是滑坡加速蠕变的起点，是锁固段的临界破坏点；峰值强度点D为锁固段破裂点，标志着贯穿性滑带的形成；残余强度E点标志这滑坡进入了临界滑移阶段，是滑坡的临界滑移起点
Figure 4. Correspondence between the deformation and damage process of the locked section and the landslide creep phase
图 5 前进式顺层岩质滑坡演化过程半经验模型弱化系数状态曲线(修改自文献[19]，图中物理量的含义见正文)
a~d.当滑坡从a阶段演化到d阶段时，S型曲线显示了滑带强度的软化过程；e.顺层岩质滑坡剖面示意图及滑带强度软化方向
Figure 5. Semi-empirical model weakening coefficient state curve of the evolution process of a forward progressive rockslide
图 6 基于物理力学机制的滑坡数值预报模式概念图
滑坡广义演化方程中S(t)为时间t对应的滑坡演化关键特征参量；Ω(t)为时间t对应的地质模型; L(t)为时间t对应的外动力因素; D(t)为时间t对应的初始边界条件；可考虑强度弱化与阶段特性的滑坡地质体本构方程中σ(t)为时间t对应的地质体应力; ε(t)为时间t对应的地质体应变，$ \dot{\varepsilon}$为时间t对应的地质体应变率；I(t)为时间t对应的地质体结构损伤能量；初始条件与边界条件中u为位移，δ(x)与ψ(x)分别为位移初始值与速率初始值；Pi为表面的外力分量; σij为应力张量; nj为表面法线方向矢量；平衡方程中σij, j与Fbi分别为应力与体力的张量形式；几何方程中，εij为应变张量; ui, j与uj, i为相对位移张量；本构方程中dεij为总应变增量; dεije与dεijp为弹性应变增量与塑性应变增量; E为弹性模量; G为剪切弹性模量; v为泊松比; σm为应力张量的球张量; δij为换标符号; 贝叶斯更新中fx, θ(x, θ)为依赖于参数θ的概率密度函数; fx|θ表示在参数θ给定某个值时x的条件分布，π(θ)为参数θ的先验概率
Figure 6. Conceptual diagram of the landslide numerical forecasting mode based on physical-mechanical mechanism
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