重大滑坡预测预报研究进展与展望

唐辉明

doi:10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2022.0203

重大滑坡预测预报研究进展与展望

doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2022.0203

唐辉明^{a, b,}

a.
中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院, 武汉 430074
b.
中国地质大学(武汉)湖北巴东地质灾害国家野外科学观测研究站, 武汉 430074

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金重大项目 42090050

详细信息

作者简介:
唐辉明(1962-), 男, 教授, 博士生导师, 主要从事工程地质模拟和地质灾害防治的教学与科研工作。E-mail: tanghm@cug.edu.cn

中图分类号: P642.22
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- 文章访问数: 3759
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-05-20

Advance and prospects of major landslides prediction and forecasting

Tang Huiming^{a, b
,}

a.
Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences(Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
b.
Badong National Observation and Research Station of Geohazards, China University of Geosciences(Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China

摘要

摘要:
我国是世界上滑坡灾害最严重的国家之一, 重大滑坡灾害严重威胁人民生命财产安全和国家重大战略实施。滑坡精准预测预报是防灾减灾的前提, 也是亟待突破的世界性科学难题。以重大滑坡预测预报为目标, 聚焦滑坡演化过程与物理力学机制核心科学问题, 凝炼了滑坡启滑关联机制、滑坡启滑物理力学机制、滑坡过程预测预报理论3个关键科学问题, 提出了如下研究思路: 以系统论、控制论和信息论为指导, 依托大型野外试验场, 采用现场原型试验与多场关联监测、大型物理模型试验、多场耦合模拟等技术手段, 以滑坡孕育过程为基础, 提出了重大滑坡的启滑分类; 揭示锁固解锁型、静态液化型和动水驱动型滑坡启滑物理力学机制, 建立相应的启滑判据; 构建重大滑坡数值预报模式与实时预报平台, 创立基于物理力学过程的滑坡预测预报理论。通过实施, 可奠定上述3类滑坡预测预报的地质、力学与物理基础, 引领重大滑坡预测预报研究, 保障国家重大战略的顺利实施, 契合国家防灾减灾重大需求。
- 重大滑坡 /
- 演化过程 /
- 物理力学机制 /
- 启滑判据 /
- 预测预报
Abstract:
China is one of the countries with the most serious landslide disasters in the world. Major landslides seriously threaten people's lives and property and influence the implementation of major national strategies. Accurate and reliable landslide prediction is the premise of disaster prevention and mitigation, and it is also a significant worldwide scientific issue that needs to be solved urgently. Aiming at predicting major landslides, this paper focuses on the core scientific issues of landslide evolution processes, and physical-mechanical mechanisms, and condenses three key scientific issues: landslide initiation correlation mechanisms, landslide initiation physical-mechanical mechanisms, and the theory of landslide process prediction. To solve these issues, the following research ideas are proposed: based on large field experimental sites and guided by system theory, cybernetics, and information theory, technical means, including on-site prototype testing and monitoring, large-scale physical model testing, and multifield coupling simulation, which are applied to determine the initiation classification of major landslides according to the landslide evolution process; the physical-mechanical mechanism of locked-segment unlocking-type landslides, static liquefied-type landslides, and hydrodynamic pressure-driven landslides are revealed; the corresponding initiation criterion is established; the numerical prediction mode and real-time forecasting platform for major landslides are constructed; landslide prediction theory based on physical-mechanical processes is established. It will lay the geological, mechanical, and physical foundation for the prediction of the above three types of landslides, ensuring the successful smooth implementation of major national strategies while meeting the major national needs for disaster prevention and mitigation.
- major landslides /
- evolution process /
- physical-mechanical mechanism /
- initiation criterion /
- prediction and forecasting

HTML全文

图 1 全球滑坡地质灾害易发性分区图(据文献[13]修改)

Figure 1. Map of global landslide susceptibility

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 近20年地质灾害造成人员死亡数量与趋势

Figure 2. Tendency of deaths caused by geo-hazards over two decades

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 城镇化建设等对人-地协调发展的影响

Figure 3. Impacts of urbanization construction on human-land coordinated development

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 滑坡预测预报近30年文献发展趋势

Figure 4. Literature review of the development trend of landslide predictionin in the past 30 years

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图 5 滑坡预测预报理论突破路径

Figure 5. Breakthrough path of landslide prediction theory

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图 6 重大滑坡预测预报基础研究关键科学问题

Figure 6. Key scientific issues in basic research of major landslide prediction

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 7 重大滑坡预测预报总体研究思路

Figure 7. General research idea of major landslides prediction and forecasting

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

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