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重大滑坡预测预报研究进展与展望

唐辉明

唐辉明. 重大滑坡预测预报研究进展与展望[J]. 地质科技通报, 2022, 41(6): 1-13. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2022.0203
引用本文: 唐辉明. 重大滑坡预测预报研究进展与展望[J]. 地质科技通报, 2022, 41(6): 1-13. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2022.0203
Tang Huiming. Advance and prospects of major landslides prediction and forecasting[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2022, 41(6): 1-13. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2022.0203
Citation: Tang Huiming. Advance and prospects of major landslides prediction and forecasting[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2022, 41(6): 1-13. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2022.0203

重大滑坡预测预报研究进展与展望

doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2022.0203
基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金重大项目 42090050

详细信息
    作者简介:

    唐辉明(1962-), 男, 教授, 博士生导师, 主要从事工程地质模拟和地质灾害防治的教学与科研工作。E-mail: tanghm@cug.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: P642.22

Advance and prospects of major landslides prediction and forecasting

  • 摘要:

    我国是世界上滑坡灾害最严重的国家之一, 重大滑坡灾害严重威胁人民生命财产安全和国家重大战略实施。滑坡精准预测预报是防灾减灾的前提, 也是亟待突破的世界性科学难题。以重大滑坡预测预报为目标, 聚焦滑坡演化过程与物理力学机制核心科学问题, 凝炼了滑坡启滑关联机制、滑坡启滑物理力学机制、滑坡过程预测预报理论3个关键科学问题, 提出了如下研究思路: 以系统论、控制论和信息论为指导, 依托大型野外试验场, 采用现场原型试验与多场关联监测、大型物理模型试验、多场耦合模拟等技术手段, 以滑坡孕育过程为基础, 提出了重大滑坡的启滑分类; 揭示锁固解锁型、静态液化型和动水驱动型滑坡启滑物理力学机制, 建立相应的启滑判据; 构建重大滑坡数值预报模式与实时预报平台, 创立基于物理力学过程的滑坡预测预报理论。通过实施, 可奠定上述3类滑坡预测预报的地质、力学与物理基础, 引领重大滑坡预测预报研究, 保障国家重大战略的顺利实施, 契合国家防灾减灾重大需求。

     

  • 图 1  全球滑坡地质灾害易发性分区图(据文献[13]修改)

    Figure 1.  Map of global landslide susceptibility

    图 2  近20年地质灾害造成人员死亡数量与趋势

    Figure 2.  Tendency of deaths caused by geo-hazards over two decades

    图 3  城镇化建设等对人-地协调发展的影响

    Figure 3.  Impacts of urbanization construction on human-land coordinated development

    图 4  滑坡预测预报近30年文献发展趋势

    Figure 4.  Literature review of the development trend of landslide predictionin in the past 30 years

    图 5  滑坡预测预报理论突破路径

    Figure 5.  Breakthrough path of landslide prediction theory

    图 6  重大滑坡预测预报基础研究关键科学问题

    Figure 6.  Key scientific issues in basic research of major landslide prediction

    图 7  重大滑坡预测预报总体研究思路

    Figure 7.  General research idea of major landslides prediction and forecasting

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