Multiduration critical rainfall prediction model for typhoons and non-typhoon rainfall landslides
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摘要: 统计确定临界降雨量是滑坡早期预警常用的方法。东南沿海地区台风暴雨不同于一般降雨, 常引发滑坡灾害, 从而威胁沿海地区人民生命财产安全。为了建立台风和非台风降雨型滑坡临界降雨量预测模型, 以浙江丽水市为例, 基于2010-2020年台风暴雨、非台风降雨诱发滑坡与降雨量的统计, 构建了丽水市滑坡发生概率和有效降雨量的关系, 提出了多时长临界降雨量预测模型, 并开展了台风和非台风降雨型滑坡预测模型结果的对比分析。结果表明, 非台风降雨与台风暴雨之间雨型和雨量差异是导致丽水市内2类降雨滑坡预测模型差异的主要原因; 以多时长预测模型确定的临界雨量值法和有效降雨天数更加符合丽水市降雨型滑坡的预测预报, 且预测精度相比于传统相关性分析法更高。研究成果对于开发区域降雨型滑坡预测模型具有理论意义, 对我国东南沿海地区汛期滑坡早期预警具有重要实际意义。Abstract: The statistical determination of critical rainfall is a commonly used method for the early warning of landslides. The typhoon rainstorm in southeast coastal areas is different from the general rainfall, and often cause landslide disasters, thus threatening the safety of people's property in coastal, in order to establish the critical rainfall prediction model of typhoon and nontyphoon rainfall landslides, taking Lishui City, Zhejiang Province, as an example, based on the statistics of both rainstorm and nontyphoon-included landslides and rainfall during 2010-2020. The relationship between the occurrence probability of landslides and effective rainfall in Lishui City was constructed. A multiduration critical rainfall prediction model was proposed, and the results of typhoon and nontyphoon prainfall landslide prediction models were compared and analysed. The results show that the difference in rainfall type and rainfall between nontyphoon rainfall and typhoon rainstorms is the main reason for the difference in the two types of prediction models in Lishui City. The critical rainfall value method and effective rainfall days determined by the multiduration prediction model are more consistent with the prediction of rainfall landslides in Lishui City, and the prediction accuracy is higher than that of the traditional correlation analysis method.The research results have theoretical significance for the development of the regional rainfall-induced landslide predictive model, and have important practical significance for the early warning of the flood season landslides in the southeastern coastal areas of my country.
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图 2 丽水市2015-2020年滑坡灾害分布图
Figure 2. Distribution of landslide locations in Lishui City from 2015 to 2020
图 3 两次典型台风过境丽水市日均雨量柱状图
Figure 3. Histogram of average daily rainfall of typical typhoons passing through Lishui City
图 4 2015-2020年降雨型滑坡发生前8 d日均雨量
Figure 4. Average daily rainfall in the 8 days before rainfall-induced landslides from 2015 to 2020
图 5 多时长非台风降雨型滑坡临界降雨量
Figure 5. Multi-duration critical rainfall for normal rainfall-induced landslides
图 6 多时长台风降雨型滑坡临界降雨量
Figure 6. Multiduration critical rainfall for typhoon rainfall-induced landslides
图 7 临界雨值线间距Hi的变化
Figure 7. Change in the distance of the critical rainfall line spacing Hi
图 8 降雨型滑坡事件的累积降雨量变化
Figure 8. Change in the cumulative rainfall for rainfall-induced landslide events
表 1 2010-2020年部分非台风降雨型滑坡事件的降雨数据
Table 1. Rainfall data of some normal rainfall-induced landslide events in 2010-2020
日期 R0/mm R1/mm R2/mm R3/mm R4/mm R5/mm R6/mm R7/mm R8/mm 是否发生 2012-05-05 63.10 23.40 8.90 5.50 0 0 0.10 10.90 0 是 2014-06-24 57.20 88.50 66.70 0.70 9.10 0.30 20.70 3 0 是 2015-08-09 46.47 63.51 14.09 0.37 0 0 0 0 0 是 2016-05-08 16.17 14.35 23.82 24.54 20.13 0 37.18 13.01 0 否 2020-07-18 0.03 0.10 11.00 4.78 0.11 0.12 0.04 0.60 23.38 否 
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表 2 2015-2020年部分台风降雨型滑坡事件的降雨数据
Table 2. Rainfall data of some typhoon rainfall-induced landslide events from 2015 to 2020
日期 R0/mm R1/mm R2/mm R3/mm R4/mm R5/mm R6/mm R7/mm R8/mm 是否发生 2015-08-09 38.71 62.84 14.18 0.07 0 0 0 0 0 是 2016-09-15 76.94 17.91 8.18 2.74 36.25 10.45 1.56 0.91 3.36 是 2019-08-10 28.79 38.57 4.31 0.07 0.86 0.08 1.14 3.90 0.01 是 2020-08-04 75.54 7.23 0.14 0 0 0.45 0.20 0.07 2.06 是
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表 3 累积降雨量与降雨型滑坡发生相关性
Table 3. Correlation between accumulated rainfall and rainfall-induced landslides
累计降雨因子 Q0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 非台风降雨型滑坡 Pearson相关 0.450** 0.453** 0.485** 0.479** 0.443** 0.441** 0.440** 0.424** 0.415** 台风型滑坡 Pearson相关 0.507** 0.532** 0.482** 0.487** 0.534** 0.470** 0.485** 0.485** 0.481** 注：**表示在0.01显著性水平下，相关性显著
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表 4 模型预测分类
Table 4. Classification of model prediction
实际统计值 非台风降雨型滑坡 模型预测值 非台风降雨型滑坡 不发生 发生 正确百分比/% 不发生 发生 正确百分比/% 不发生20 19 1 95.0 不发生6 6 0 100.0 发生26 3 23 88.5 发生7 1 6 85.7 综合 91.3 92.3 注：分界值为0.500
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