考虑地震危险性的倾倒变形边坡风险定量分析

魏进兵; 何治良; 杨仲康

doi:10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2022.0018

考虑地震危险性的倾倒变形边坡风险定量分析

doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2022.0018

魏进兵^{1a, 1b,},
何治良^{1a, 1b, 2, ,},
杨仲康^{1a, 1b}

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目 2018YFC1505006

国家自然科学基金项目 41977246

国家自然科学基金项目 51904248

详细信息

作者简介:
魏进兵(1976—), 男, 副教授, 主要从事边坡与滑坡工程研究。E-mail: jbwei@scu.edu.cn

通讯作者:
何治良(1988—), 男, 讲师, 主要从事岩土工程研究。E-mail: hezhiliang@swust.edu.cn

中图分类号: P642.22
计量
- 文章访问数: 919
- PDF下载量: 58
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-05-28

Quantitative risk analysis of toppling slope considering seismic risk

Wei Jinbing^{1a, 1b
,},
He Zhiliang^{1a, 1b, 2
, ,},
Yang Zhongkang^{1a, 1b}

摘要

摘要: 风险分析与评估是解决边坡固有不确定性的重要工具, 但同时考虑外在荷载和内在岩土力学参数的不确定性, 对边坡进行系统定量风险分析的研究较少。以西藏扎拉水电站厂后倾倒变形边坡为例, 基于场地地震峰值加速度概率密度函数和不同地震峰值加速度下边坡失稳概率拟合函数, 采用数值积分计算了边坡在设计基准期的失稳概率, 并采用离散元方法对边坡失稳后的影响范围进行了数值模拟, 在此基础上进行了承灾体易损性分析及定量风险计算, 最后采用ALARP准则进行了风险评价。研究表明, 考虑地震危险性条件下, 扎拉水电站厂后倾倒变形边坡在50 a设计基准期内失稳概率为0.061 9;边坡对水电站地面厂房存在较大威胁, 相应财产风险为5 482万元; 根据ALARP准则, 边坡风险处于不可接受区, 需采取措施防范或规避风险。研究成果对于边坡治理工程决策及风险管理具有指导意义。
- 地震危险性 /
- 倾倒变形边坡 /
- 失稳概率 /
- 易损性 /
- 定量风险分析
Abstract: Risk analysis and assessment are important tools to solve the inherent uncertainty of slopes. At present, there are few studies on systematic quantitative risk analysis of slopes considering the uncertainty of external load and internal geotechnical mechanical parameters at the same time. This paper takes the toppling slopebehind the power plant of the Zhala hydropower station in Tibet as an example. Based on the probability density function (PDF) of site seismic peak acceleration and the fitting function of slope failure probability under different seismic peak accelerations, the overall slope failure probability is calculated by numerical integration, and the influence range of the slope is simulated by the discrete element method (DEM). Then, vulnerability analysis and quantitative risk calculation of elements at risk are carried out. Finally, the ALARP criterion is used for risk assessment. The results show that, considering the seismic risk, the failure probability of the slope is 0.061 9 in the 50-year design reference period. The slope poses a great threat to the ground powerhouse of hydropower stations, and the corresponding economic risk is 54.82 million RMB. According to the ALARP criterion, the slope risk is in the unacceptable area, and measures should be taken to prevent or avoid the risk. The research results have guiding significance for decision-making and risk management of slope treatment engineering.
- seismic risk /
- toppling slope /
- instability probability /
- vulnerability /
- quantitative risk analysis

HTML全文

图 1 厂后倾倒变形边坡平面图

Figure 1. Overview of the toppling slope behind the power plant

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 工程地质剖面图

Figure 2. Profile of engineering geology

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 厂后倾倒变形边坡滑移破坏模式^[33]

Figure 3. Sliding-failure modes of the toppling slope behind the power plant^[33]

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 水平地震动峰值加速度的概率分布及概率密度分布

Figure 4. Distribution of probability and probability density of horizontal earthquake dynamic peak acceleration

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 边坡失稳概率与水平地震动峰值加速度关系曲线

Figure 5. Curve of slope failure probability and the earthquake acceleration factors

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 离散元计算模型

Figure 6. Calculation model of DEM

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图 7 边坡失稳影响范围

Figure 7. Influence range after slope failure

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 8 边坡经济风险评价(底图引自文献[40])

Figure 8. Economy risk assessment of slope

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 底弯面抗剪强度参数

Table 1. Mechanical parameters of the bottom sliding surface

抗剪强度参数	分布类型	均值	标准差
黏聚力/MPa	正态分布	0.33	0.03
内摩擦角/(°)	正态分布	31	2

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 结构面力学参数

Table 2. Mechanical parameters of the structural planes

结构面	法向刚度/(GPa·m^-1)	剪切刚度/(GPa·m^-1)	黏聚力/MPa	内摩擦角/(°)	抗拉强度/MPa
岩层面	1.0	0.8	0.10	26	0.20
节理面	1.7	0.9	0.45	34	0.50
底弯面	1.5	0.9	0.33	31	0.17

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 承灾体参数汇总

Table 3. Summary of parameters of hazard bearing

承灾体	P(T\|L)	P(S\|T)	V(prop\|S)	E/万元	备注
公路	1.0	1.0	1.0	75
地面厂房建筑	1.0	1.0	0.3	64 700
发电设备	1.0	1.0	0.1	90 800
发电收益	1.0	1.0	1.0	60 000	按6个月计算
注：参数含义见式(1)说明

下载: 导出CSV

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