基于SSA-Adam-BP神经网络模型的堰塞坝稳定性预测

宋宜祥; 张晓波; 黄达

doi:10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2022.0040

基于SSA-Adam-BP神经网络模型的堰塞坝稳定性预测

doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2022.0040

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 41902290

国家自然科学基金项目 41672300

国家自然科学基金项目 41972297

河北省自然科学基金项目 D2020202002

河北省自然科学基金项目 D202102002

详细信息

作者简介:
宋宜祥(1987—)，男，讲师，硕士生导师，主要从事地质灾害和岩土工程数值模拟研究。E-mail: syxdlut2010@163.com

通讯作者:
黄达(1976—)，男，教授，博士生导师，主要从事岩石力学与地质灾害方面研究。E-mail: dahuang@hebut.edu.cn

中图分类号: P642.2
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-05-10

Stability prediction of landslide dams based on SSA-Adam-BP neural network model

摘要

摘要: 现有的堰塞坝稳定性预测模型多为线性模型, 无法充分考虑堰塞坝稳定性与其形态特征和水域条件之间的复杂非线性关系。鉴于此, 结合反向传播神经网络模型和樽海鞘优化算法, 提出了一种新型的堰塞坝稳定性预测模型SSA-Adam-BP。该模型通过网格搜索法选取确定模型结构的最佳超参数组合, 进而利用交叉验证和绘制ROC曲线的方式分别对采用不同优化算法的模型进行评估。使用开源数据库中的全球153例堰塞坝数据对模型的实际应用进行了说明及验证。与传统线性模型的对比表明神经网络模型预测准确率较高, 具有较低的误报率。将SSA与Adam优化算法结合提高了BP模型的全局搜索能力, 其平均交叉验证准确率达到了91.73%, 能够使用较少的参数实现对堰塞坝稳定性快速准确的预测。SSA-Adam-BP模型对近年来典型工程的稳定性能够准确预测, 具有一定的实用性和系统平台推广应用价值。
- 堰塞坝稳定性 /
- 机器学习 /
- 稳定性预测 /
- BP神经网络 /
- SSA优化算法
Abstract: Most of the existing landslide dam stability prediction models are linear models, which cannot fully consider the complex nonlinear relationship between landslide dam stability and its morphological characteristics and hydrodynamic conditions.In view of this, a new SSA-Adam-BP model for predicting the stability of landslide dams is proposed by combining the back propagation neural network model and the salp optimization algorithm.The grid search method is used to select the best combination of hyperparameters that can determine the structure of the model.Then, the models with different optimization algorithms are evaluated by cross-validation and ROC curve drawing.The practical application of the model is explained and verified by using the global data of 153 landslide dams in the open source database.Compared with the traditional linear model, the combination of the SSA and Adam optimization algorithm improves the global search ability of the BP model, and its average cross-verification accuracy reaches 91.73%.It not only has a lower misjudgment rate but can also use fewer parameters to quickly and accurately predict the stability of landslide dams.The SSA-Adam-BP model can accurately predict the stability of typical projects in recent years, with certain practicality and system platform promotion application value.
- landslide dam stability /
- machine learning /
- stability prediction /
- BP neural network /
- SSA optimization algorithm

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图 1 单隐藏层BP神经网络结构图

Figure 1. BP neural network structure of single hidden layer

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图 2 SSA-Adam-BP神经网络训练流程图

Figure 2. Flow chart of SSA-Adam-BP neural network training

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图 3 采用不同处理方式的变量分布示意图

Figure 3. Schematic diagrams of variable distribution using different processing methods

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图 4 不同BP神经网络模型的ROC曲线及AUC值

Figure 4. ROC curve and AUC value of different BP neural network models

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图 5 预测失误案例位置分布图

Figure 5. Location distribution map of prediction error cases

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图 6 中国32例堰塞坝的稳定性预测结果

Figure 6. Stability prediction results of 32 landslide dams in China

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表 1 Ermini堰塞坝数据库

Table 1. Landslide dam database established by Ermini

序号	坝体高度H/m	坝体体积V/m³	集水区面积A/km²	稳定性分类	参考文献
1	20	1 500 000	5	SD	[10]
2	15	400 000	15	SD	[10]
⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮
84	90	18 000 000	147	UD	[10]

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表 2 Tabata堰塞坝数据库

Table 2. Landslide dam database established by Tabata

序号	坝体高度H/m	坝体体积V/m³	集水区面积A/km²	稳定性分类	参考文献
1	10	180 000	60	UD	[26]
2	20	100 000	83	UD	[26]
⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮
37	20	22 000	14.5	SD	[26]

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表 3 121例堰塞坝数据基本统计信息

Table 3. Basic statistical information of 121 cases based on the landslide dam database

特征变量	坝体高度H/m	坝体体积V/m³	集水区面积A/km²
最小值	3.00	8.70×10⁷	0.19
最大值	500.00	2.20×10⁹	4.50×10⁴
平均值	52.88	5.70×10⁷	731.61
标准差	65.87	2.86×10⁸	4 321.71

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表 4 Shapiro-Wilk检验结果

Table 4. Testing results of Shapiro-Wilk

变量	统计量W	p值	在5%水平下的结论
H′	0.68	0.00	排除正态性
V′	0.19	0.00	排除正态性
A′	0.14	0.00	排除正态性
lg(H′)	0.99	0.79	不能排除正态性
lg(V′)	0.999	0.70	不能排除正态性
lg(A′)	0.99	0.11	不能排除正态性

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表 5 不同BP神经网络模型的交叉验证准确率

Table 5. Cross-verification accuracy of different BP neural network models

模型	准确率/%					平均准确率/%
模型	K=1	K=2	K=3	K=4	K=5	平均准确率/%
Adam-BP	87.50	87.50	91.67	91.67	88.00	89.27
SSA-BP	87.50	83.33	91.67	91.67	88.00	88.43
SSA-Adam-BP	91.67	87.50	95.83	91.67	92.00	91.73

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表 6 堰塞坝稳定性线性预测模型

Table 6. Linear prediction model of landslide dam stability

提出者	判别公式	判别标准
Ermini等^[10]	$DBI = {\rm{lg}}\left( {\frac{{A \times H}}{V}} \right)$	DBI < 2.75稳定； 2.75 < DBI < 3.08 无法确定；DBI>3.08 不稳定
Dong等^[27]	$\begin{array}{c} D = - 2.13{\rm{lg}}\left( A \right) - \\ 4.08{\rm{lg}}\left( H \right) + \\ 2.94{\rm{lg}}\left( V \right) + 4.09 \end{array}$	D>0稳定; D≤0不稳定
Dong等^[28]	$\begin{array}{c} {L_{\rm{s}}} = - 4.48{\rm{lg}}\left( A \right) - \\ 9.31{\rm{lg}}\left( H \right) + \\ 6.61{\rm{lg}}\left( V \right) + 6.39\\ {P_{\rm{s}}} = \frac{1}{{1 + {{\rm{e}}^{ - {L_{\rm{s}}}}}}} \end{array}$	P_s>0.5稳定; P_s≤0.5不稳定

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表 7 各堰塞坝稳定性预测模型的预测结果

Table 7. Prediction results of the stability prediction models of landslide dams

模型	准确数量	准确率/%	误报数量	误报率/%
DBI	23	62.16	7	18.92
AHV_Dis	26	70.27	6	16.22
AHV_Log	27	72.97	5	13.51
SSA-Adam-BP	32	86.49	1	2.70

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表 8 各输入参数的平均影响值

Table 8. Mean influence value of each input parameter

影响因素	Y₁	Y₂	平均影响值
坝体高度	32.04	46.31	-0.17
坝体体积	55.54	23.56	0.38
集水区面积	31.02	51.27	-0.24

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表 9 中国近年来典型堰塞坝事件^[31]

Table 9. Typical landslide dam cases in China in recent years

序号	形成时间	名称	坝体高度H/m	坝体体积V/m³	集水区面积A/km²	稳定性分类
1	2000	易贡	80	300 000 000	13 533	不稳定
2	2008	白果村	15	400 000	3 564	不稳定
⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮	⋮
32	2018	白格(2)	81	10 000 000	173 484	不稳定

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