Hazard assessment of glacial lake outbursts in the Doyinongba Basin, southeastern Tibetan Plateau
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摘要:
冰湖溃决灾害是指冰湖坝体突然破坏引发溃决洪水或溃决泥石流的现象，对下游人类活动和自然环境造成严重影响。近年来，藏东南地区冰川快速退缩，冰湖数量和规模显著增加，冰湖溃决事件广泛发生。基于1995-2021年多时相Landsat系列遥感影像、Sentinel-2A遥感影像，结合RAMMS水文动力学模型方法，对藏东南地区多依弄巴流域内冰湖、冰川进行动态变化分析，模拟冰崩危险体触发冰湖溃决和冰湖溃决泥石流的演进过程，根据泥石流模拟中的流速和流深对冰湖溃决可能影响的区域进行危险性分区。结果表明：流域内冰川面积由1995年的14.05 km2退缩为2021年的9.43 km2，年均退缩率约为0.15 km2/a。流域内共发育3处冰崩危险体，均可能触发冰湖溃决。潜在危险冰湖在全溃情况下，溃决泥石流会冲出沟口堵塞然乌湖湖口和帕隆藏布主河道，对下游居民和道路造成影响，影响范围约4.05 km2，其中高危险性区域约2.55 km2。危险性评价结果可为多依弄巴流域未来土地利用规划和防灾减灾提供依据，也能为藏东南地区冰湖溃决型泥石流危险评估提供参考。
Abstract:Glacial lake outburst disasters are the phenomena of outburst floods or debris flows induced by the sudden destruction of glacial lake dams. It has a serious impact on human activities and the natural environment. Recently, the glaciers in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau have retreated rapidly, and the number and scale of glacial lakes have increased significantly, causing frequent occurrences of glacial lake outburst in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Dynamic changes in glaciers and glacial lakes, process simulation of the glacial lake outbursts triggered by ice avalanches, and the movement process of glacial lake outburst debris flows were investigated by combining multitemporal Landsat series satellite images, Sentinel-2A satellite images from 1995 to 2021, and the rapid mass movement simulation hydrodynamic modeling(RAMMS). Hazard zoning of debris flow areas was estimated according to the flow velocity and flow depth in the debris flow simulation. The results indicate that the glacial area in the basin shrinks from 14.05 km2 in 1995 to 9.43 km2 in 2021, and the average annual rate of shrinkage is 0.15 km2/a. There are three ice avalanches in the basin, all of which may trigger the collapse of the glacial lake. When the potentially dangerous glacial lake is drained completely, the debris flow rushing out of the ditch may block the mouth of Ranwu Lake and the main river channel of Palongzangbo, posing a threat to the residents and roads downstream. The impact area is approximately 4.05 km2, and the high-risk area is approximately 2.55 km2. The above-mentioned results provide a basis for land use planning, disaster prevention, and mitigation inthe Doyinongba basin, guiding the hazard assessments of glacial lake outburst debris flows in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.
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Key words:
- glacial lake outburst /
- RAMMS /
- hazard assessment /
- ice avalanche /
- southeastern Tibetan Plateau
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图 2 多依弄巴流域纵剖面及冰湖溃决过程示意图
①冰崩体失稳形成冰崩碎屑流;②冰崩碎屑流冲入冰湖;③冰湖发生溃决;④冰湖溃决泥石流冲出沟口并堆积
Figure 2. Schematic diagram of the longitudinal section of the Doyinongba watershed and the outburst process of glacial lake
图 5 波密气象站气温和降水量变化
Figure 5. Temperature and precipitation changes at the Bomi meteorologic station
图 6 3个冰崩危险体模拟流深
Figure 6. Flow depth of the three modeled potential avalanches with unit m
图 7 冰湖溃决最大流深和危险性分区
Figure 7. Maximum flow depth and hazard zoning of ice lake outburst
表 1 遥感影像来源
Table 1. Source of remote sensing image
获取时间 数据源 波段组合 分辨率/m 1995/11/23 Landsat 5 TM 5, 4, 3 30 1999/09/05 Landsat 5 TM 5, 4, 3 30 2013/09/14 Landsat 5 TM 5, 4, 3 30 2020/08/18 Sentinel-2A 7, 4, 3 10 2021/10/12 Sentinel-2A 7, 4, 3 10 2021/11/07 Landsat 8 OLI 7, 4, 3 30 
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表 2 泥石流危险性分区划分标准
Table 2. Debris flow hazard zoning standards
危险性等级 最大流深/m 关系 流深乘以最大流速/(m2·S-1) 高 H≥2.5 或 VH≥2.5 中 2.5＞H≥0.5 且 2.5＞VH≥0.5 低 H＜0.5 且 VH＜0.5
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表 3 冰湖分布及面积变化
Table 3. Distribution and area change of glacier lake
冰湖编号 经度 纬度 高程/m 面积/km2 1995年 1999年 2013年 2021年 GL01 96°35′27″ 29°25′44″ 4 761 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 GL02 96°36′46″ 29°24′57″ 4 253 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 GL03 96°37′15″ 29°25′15″ 4 068 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 GL04 96°40′48″ 29°24′18″ 4 825 0.34 0.33 0.32 0.33 总和 / / / 0.45 0.45 0.47 0.49 变化 / / / / / 0.02 0.02
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表 4 冰崩危险体特征
Table 4. Characteristics of glacier avalanches
编号 面积/m3 体积/m3 后缘高程/m 与冰湖高差/m 位置 B01 900 1 924 740 4 820 740 G01冰川末端 B02 900 815 685 4 696 616 G02冰川末端 B03 900 1 103 364 4 828 750 G03冰川末端
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