留言板

尊敬的读者、作者、审稿人, 关于本刊的投稿、审稿、编辑和出版的任何问题, 您可以本页添加留言。我们将尽快给您答复。谢谢您的支持!

姓名
邮箱
手机号码
标题
留言内容
验证码

基于I-D阈值的滑坡气象预警双指标模型

龚泉冰 殷坤龙 肖常贵 陈丽霞 严亮轩 曾韬睿 刘谢攀

龚泉冰, 殷坤龙, 肖常贵, 陈丽霞, 严亮轩, 曾韬睿, 刘谢攀. 基于I-D阈值的滑坡气象预警双指标模型[J]. 地质科技通报, 2024, 43(1): 262-274. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20220254
引用本文: 龚泉冰, 殷坤龙, 肖常贵, 陈丽霞, 严亮轩, 曾韬睿, 刘谢攀. 基于I-D阈值的滑坡气象预警双指标模型[J]. 地质科技通报, 2024, 43(1): 262-274. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20220254
GONG Quanbing, YIN Kunlong, XIAO Changgui, CHEN Lixia, YAN Liangxuan, ZENG Taorui, LIU Xiepan. Double-index model of landslide meteorological warning based on the I-D threshold[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2024, 43(1): 262-274. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20220254
Citation: GONG Quanbing, YIN Kunlong, XIAO Changgui, CHEN Lixia, YAN Liangxuan, ZENG Taorui, LIU Xiepan. Double-index model of landslide meteorological warning based on the I-D threshold[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2024, 43(1): 262-274. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20220254

基于I-D阈值的滑坡气象预警双指标模型

doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20220254
基金项目: 

国家重点研发计划课题 2023YFC3007201

衢州市自然资源和规划局柯城分局科研项目 ZZCG2021058

详细信息
    作者简介:

    龚泉冰, E-mail: qbgong@cug.edu.cn

    通讯作者:

    殷坤龙, E-mail: yinkl@cug.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: P642.22

Double-index model of landslide meteorological warning based on the I-D threshold

More Information
  • 摘要:

    确定降雨阈值对于管控降雨型滑坡灾害风险具有重要意义。以浙江衢州市98处降雨型滑坡为例进行降雨阈值研究。在统计分析1970-2019年梅汛期间诱发滑坡降雨特征的基础上,首先对比分析I-DE-DE-I曲线建立的降雨阈值模型,然后基于I-D阈值建立以当日降雨量R0和5 d有效降雨量R5为预警指标的滑坡气象预警双指标模型,最后采用历史降雨和滑坡数据检验模型的合理性和可靠性。结果表明:(1)I-D模型对于降雨型滑坡的预测能力优于E-DE-I模型;(2)按双指标模型反演衢州市历史50 a滑坡气象预警情况,红色、橙色和黄色预警的年均预警次数为1.5,3.2,9.3次,具有较高的合理性;20处验证滑坡点被双指标模型准确预警,其中15处为红色和橙色预警,此外模型成功预警了2014年全部8处降雨型滑坡;(3)用于检验模型预测能力的7处滞后性滑坡全部成功预警,其中3处橙色预警、3处黄色预警和1处蓝色预警。本研究提出的预警模型有助于衢州市滑坡气象预警发布,为政府部门开展风险评价和管理提供新思路与方法。

     

  • 图 1  诱发滑坡的降雨事件定义

    Figure 1.  Definition of the rainfall events inducing landslides

    图 2  衢州市地理位置及区内滑坡

    Figure 2.  Location and typical landslides in Quzhou

    图 3  衢州市1970—2019年各月平均降雨量和滑坡分布

    Figure 3.  Average monthly rainfall and landslide distribution in Quzhou from 1970 to 2019

    图 4  衢州市2013—2018年累计降雨量

    Figure 4.  Accumulated rainfall during 2013-2018 in Quzhou

    图 5  衢州市2011年(a)和2017年(b)梅汛降雨过程

    Figure 5.  Rainfall process of the plum rain season in 2011 (a) and 2017 (b) in Quzhou

    图 6  衢州市1970—2019年各月累计暴雨次数和滑坡分布图

    Figure 6.  Rainstorm frequency and landslide distribution in Quzhou from 1970 to 2019

    图 7  降雨诱发滑坡的I-D阈值曲线

    Figure 7.  Rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) thresholds for the initiation of landslides

    图 8  降雨诱发滑坡的E-D阈值曲线

    Figure 8.  Cumulated event rainfall-duration(E-D) thresholds for the initiation of landslides

    图 9  降雨诱发滑坡的E-I阈值曲线

    Figure 9.  Cumulated event rainfall-intensity(E-I) threshold for the initiation of landslides

    图 10  阈值模型预测能力检验

    Figure 10.  Prediction ability test of the threshold model

    图 11  滑坡发生当日降雨量与前期有效降雨量分布图

    Figure 11.  Distribution of rainfall on the day of landslide occurrence and effective rainfall in the earlier period

    图 12  滑坡发生当日降雨量与前期降雨量

    Figure 12.  Rainfall on the day of the landslide occurrence and in the earlier period

    图 13  衢州市1970—2019年按双指标模型预警等级分布

    Figure 13.  Warning level distribution by the double-index model in Quzhou from 1970 to 2019

    图 14  双指标模型预警可靠性验证

    Figure 14.  Reliability verification of the early warning effect of the double-index model

    图 15  双指标模型预警滞后性滑坡

    Figure 15.  Prediction of hysteresis landslides with the double-index model

    表  1  衢州市国家地面气象观测站基本情况

    Table  1.   Basic information of national ground meteorological observation stations in Quzhou

    区站号 站名 站类 观测场海拔/m 经度/(°) 纬度/(°) 平均年降雨量/mm 最大日降雨量/mm
    58633 衢州 国家基本气象站 82.4 118.890 8 28.994 2 1 700 206
    58547 龙游 国家气象观测站 66.2 119.194 7 29.040 3 1 661 170.9
    58631 常山 国家气象观测站 137 118.507 2 28.907 2 1 769 204.2
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  验证滑坡数据集分布情况

    Table  2.   Distribution of threshold model prediction ability test landslides

    滑坡概率 <15% [15%, 30%) [30%, 60%) [60%, 85%] >85%
    I-D模型 0 4 3 4 9
    E-D模型 2 4 3 2 9
    E-I模型 7 4 2 3 4
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  基于I-D阈值的滑坡气象预警双指标模型

    Table  3.   Landslide meteorological warning double-index model based on the I-D threshold

    预警等级
    日降雨量R0/mm [25, 40) [40, 60) [60, 90) ≥90
    5 d有效降雨量R5/mm [50, 80) [80, 125) [125, 180) ≥180
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  衢州市按双指标模型50 a预警反演情况

    Table  4.   Release of early warning in Quzhou over the past 50 years

    预警等级 蓝色预警 黄色预警 橙色预警 红色预警
    R0预警/次 550 267 115 53
    R5预警/次 878 355 95 35
    综合预警/次 1 027 463 162 76
    年均次数 20.5 9.3 3.2 1.5
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  基于双指标模型的滑坡预警可靠性验证

    Table  5.   Verification of landslide prediction based on the double-index model

    预警等级 蓝色预警/处 黄色预警/处 橙色预警/处 红色预警/处
    R0预警 3 6 4 7
    R5预警 4 3 3 7
    综合预警 3 2 5 10
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  6  衢州市2014年滑坡发生和预警发布情况

    Table  6.   Landslide and release of the early warning in Quzhou in 2014

  • [1] 殷坤龙, 汪洋, 唐仲华. 降雨对滑坡的作用机理及动态模拟研究[J]. 地质科技情报, 2002, 22(1): 75-78.

    YIN K L, WANG Y, TANG Z H. Mechanism and dynamic simulation of landslide by precipitation[J]. Geological Science and Technology Information, 2002, 22(1): 75-78. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [2] 吴益平, 张秋霞, 唐辉明, 等. 基于有效降雨强度的滑坡灾害危险性预警[J]. 地球科学, 2014, 39(7): 889-895.

    WU Y P, ZHANG Q X, TANG H M, et al. Landslide hazard warning based on effective rainfall intensity[J]. Earth Science, 2014, 39(7): 889-895. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [3] 黄发明, 陈佳武, 范宣梅, 等. 降雨型滑坡时间概率的逻辑回归拟合及连续概率滑坡危险性建模[J]. 地球科学, 2022, 47(12): 4609-4628.

    HUANG F M, CHEN J W, FAN X M, et al. Logistics regression fitting of rainfall-induced landslide occurrence probability and continuous landslide hazard prediction modelling[J]. Earth Science, 2022, 47(12): 4609-4628. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [4] GUZZETTI F, PERUCCACCI S, ROSSI M, et al. The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: An update[J]. Landslides, 2008, 5(1): 3-17. doi: 10.1007/s10346-007-0112-1
    [5] YANG H J, WEI F, MA Z, et al. Rainfall threshold for landslide activity in Dazhou, Southwest China[J]. Landslides, 2020, 17(1): 61-77. doi: 10.1007/s10346-019-01270-z
    [6] HE S, WANG J, LIU S. Rainfall event-duration thresholds for landslide occurrences in China[J]. Water, 2020, 12(2): 494. doi: 10.3390/w12020494
    [7] MA T, LI C, LU Z, et al. Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the initiation of landslides in Zhejiang Province, China[J]. Geomorphology, 2015, 245: 193-206. doi: 10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.05.016
    [8] KEEFER D K, WILSON R C, MARK R K, et al. Real-time landslide warning during heavy rainfall[J]. Science, 1987, 238(4829): 921-925. doi: 10.1126/science.238.4829.921
    [9] OSANAI N, SHIMIZU T, KURAMOTO K, et al. Japanese early-warning for debris flows and slope failures using rainfall indices with Radial Basis Function Network[J]. Landslides, 2010, 7(3): 325-338. doi: 10.1007/s10346-010-0229-5
    [10] KONG V W W, KWAN J S H, PUN W K. Hong Kong's landslip warning system: 40 years of progress[J]. Landslides, 2020, 17(6): 1453-1463. doi: 10.1007/s10346-020-01379-6
    [11] 麻土华, 李长江, 孙乐玲, 等. 浙江地区引发滑坡的降雨强度-历时关系[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2011, 22(2): 20-25.

    MA T H, LI C J, SUN L L, et al. Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for landslides in Zhejiang region, China[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2011, 22(2): 20-25. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [12] 高华喜, 殷坤龙. 降雨与滑坡灾害相关性分析及预警预报阀值之探讨[J]. 岩土力学, 2007, 28(5): 1055-1060.

    GAO H X, YIN K L. Discuss on the correlation between landslides and rainfall and threshold for landslide early-warning and prediction[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2007, 28(5): 1055-1060. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [13] 张珍, 李世海, 马力. 重庆地区滑坡与降雨关系的概率分析[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2005, 24(17): 3185-3191.

    ZHANG Z, LI S H, MA L. Probability analysis of relationship between landslide and rainfall in Chongqing area[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2005, 24(17): 3185-3191. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [14] 李媛. 四川雅安市雨城区降雨诱发滑坡临界值初步研究[J]. 水文地质工程地质, 2005, 32(1): 26-29.

    LI Y. Preliminary Study on precipitation threshold of precipitation-induced landslides in Ya'an Yucheng District, Sichuan Province[J]. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology, 2005, 32(1): 26-29. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [15] 陈丽霞, 殷坤龙, 刘礼领, 等. 江西省滑坡与降雨的关系研究[J]. 岩土力学, 2008, 29(4): 1114-1120.

    CHEN L X, YIN K L, LIU L L, et al. Analysis of relationship between landslide and rainfall in Jiangxi Province[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2008, 29(4): 1114-1120. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [16] 林巍, 李远耀, 徐勇, 等. 湖南慈利县滑坡灾害的临界降雨量阈值研究[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2020, 37(2): 48-54.

    LIN W, LI Y Y, XU Y, et al. Rainfall threshold of rainfall-triggered landslides in Cili County, Hunan Province[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2020, 37(2): 48-54. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [17] 赵海燕, 殷坤龙, 陈丽霞, 等. 基于有效降雨阈值的澧源镇滑坡灾害危险性分析[J]. 地质科技通报, 2020, 39(4): 85-93. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2020.0431

    ZHAO H Y, YIN K L, CHEN L X, et al. Landslide hazard analysis of Liyuan Town based on effective rainfall threshold[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2020, 39(4): 85-93. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2020.0431
    [18] 朱文慧, 晏鄂川, 邹浩, 等. 湖北省黄冈市降雨型滑坡气象预警判据[J]. 地质科技通报, 2022, 41(6): 45-53. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2022.0132

    ZHU W H, YAN E C, ZOU H, et al. Meteorological early warning criterion of rainfall-induced landslide in Huanggang City, Hubei Province[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2022, 41(6): 45-53. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2022.0132
    [19] 鲍其云, 麻土华, 李长江, 等. 浙江62个丘陵山区县引发滑坡的降雨强度-历时阈值[J]. 科技通报, 2016, 32(5): 48-55, 95.

    BAO Q Y, MA T H, LI C J, et al. Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the initiation of landslides in 62 hilly and mountainous counties of Zhejiang Province[J]. Bulletin of Science and Technology, 2016, 32(5): 48-55, 95. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [20] 黄发明, 曹中山, 姚池, 等. 基于决策树和有效降雨强度的滑坡危险性预警[J]. 浙江大学学报: 工学版, 2021, 55(3): 472-482.

    HUANG F M, CAO Z S, YAO C, et al. Landslides hazard warning based on decision tree and effective rainfall intensity[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University: Engineering Science Edition, 2021, 55(3): 472-482. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [21] ROSSI M, LUCIANI S, VALIGI D, et al. Statistical approaches for the definition of landslide rainfall thresholds and their uncertainty using rain gauge and satellite data[J]. Geomorphology, 2017, 285: 16-27. doi: 10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.02.001
    [22] HUTCHINSON J N. Landslides: Causes, consequences and environment[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews, 1988, 7(1): 107-108.
    [23] 谢剑明, 刘礼领, 殷坤龙, 等. 浙江省滑坡灾害预警预报的降雨阀值研究[J]. 地质科技情报, 2003, 22(4): 101-105.

    XIE J M, LIU L L, YIN K L, et al. Study on rainfall threshold of landslide disaster early warning and prediction in Zhejiang Province[J]. Geological Science and Technology Information, 2003, 22(4): 101-105. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [24] SEGONI S, ROSSI G, ROSI A, et al. Landslides triggered by rainfall: A semi-automated procedure to define consistent intensity-duration thresholds[J]. Computers & Geosciences, 2014, 63: 123-131.
    [25] BRUNETTI M T, PERUCCACCI S, ROSSI M, et al. Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in Italy[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2010, 10(3): 447-458. doi: 10.5194/nhess-10-447-2010
    [26] KIM S W, CHUN K W, KIM M, et al. Effect of antecedent rainfall conditions and their variations on shallow landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds in South Korea[J]. Landslides, 2021, 18(2): 569-582. doi: 10.1007/s10346-020-01505-4
    [27] GUZZETTI F, PERUCCACCI S, ROSSI M, et al. Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern Europe[J]. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 2007, 98(3/4): 239-267.
    [28] 刘谢攀, 殷坤龙, 肖常贵, 等. 基于I-D-R阈值模型的滑坡气象预警[J/OL]. 地球科学: 1-15[2022-08-24]. http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/42.1874.P.20220708.1511.002.html

    LIU X P, YIN K L, XIAO C G. Meteorological early warning of landslide based on I-D-R threshold model. [J/OL]. Earth Science: 1-15[2022-08-24]. http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/42.1874.P.20220708.1511.002.html. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [29] CAINE N. The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows[J]. Geografiska Annaler(Series A, Physical Geography), 1980, 62(1/2): 23-27. doi: 10.2307/520449
    [30] GIANNECCHINI R, GALANTI Y, BARSANTI M. Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for triggering shallow landslides in the Eastern Ligurian Riviera (Italy)[C]//Lollino G, Giordan D, Crosta G B, et al. Engineering Geology for Society and Territory, Vol 2: Landslide Processes. Cham: Springer Int Publishing Ag, 2015: 1581-1584.
    [31] MARIN R J, VELÁSQUEZ M F, GARCÍA E F, et al. Assessing two methods of defining rainfall intensity and duration thresholds for shallow landslides in data-scarce catchments of the Colombian Andean Mountains[J]. Catena, 2021, 206: 105563. doi: 10.1016/j.catena.2021.105563
    [32] LI W, LIU C, SCAIONI M, et al. Spatio-temporal analysis and simulation on shallow rainfall-induced landslides in China using landslide susceptibility dynamics and rainfall I-D thresholds[J]. Science in China(Earth Sciences), 2017, 60(4): 720-732. doi: 10.1007/s11430-016-9008-4
    [33] MELILLO M, BRUNETTI M T, PERUCCACCI S, et al. Rainfall thresholds for the possible landslide occurrence in Sicily (Southern Italy) based on the automatic reconstruction of rainfall events[J]. Landslides, 2016, 13(1): 165-172. doi: 10.1007/s10346-015-0630-1
    [34] DIKSHIT A, SARKAR R, PRADHAN B, et al. Estimating rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in the Bhutan Himalayas[J]. Water, 2019, 11(8): 1616. doi: 10.3390/w11081616
    [35] PICIULLO L, CALVELLO M, CEPEDA J M. Territorial early warning systems for rainfall-induced landslides[J]. Earth-Science Reviews, 2018, 179: 228-247. doi: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2018.02.013
    [36] 刘礼领, 殷坤龙. 暴雨型滑坡降水入渗机理分析[J]. 岩土力学, 2008, 29(4): 1061-1066.

    LIU L L, YIN K L. Analysis of rainfall infiltration mechanism of rainstorm landslide[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2008, 29(4): 1061-1066. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [37] HUANG F, CHEN J, LIU W, et al. Regional rainfall-induced landslide hazard warning based on landslide susceptibility mapping and a critical rainfall threshold[J]. Geomorphology, 2022, 408: 108236. doi: 10.1016/j.geomorph.2022.108236
    [38] RAHIMI A, RAHARDJO H, LEONG E C. Effect of antecedent rainfall patterns on rainfall-induced slope failure[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 2011, 137(5): 483-491. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000451
  • 加载中
图(15) / 表(6)
计量
  • 文章访问数:  600
  • PDF下载量:  77
  • 被引次数: 0
出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2022-06-20
  • 录用日期:  2022-10-31
  • 修回日期:  2022-10-29

目录

    /

    返回文章
    返回