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基于I-D阈值的滑坡气象预警双指标模型

龚泉冰 殷坤龙 肖常贵 陈丽霞 严亮轩 曾韬睿 刘谢攀

龚泉冰, 殷坤龙, 肖常贵, 陈丽霞, 严亮轩, 曾韬睿, 刘谢攀. 基于I-D阈值的滑坡气象预警双指标模型[J]. 地质科技通报, 2024, 43(1): 262-274. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20220254
引用本文: 龚泉冰, 殷坤龙, 肖常贵, 陈丽霞, 严亮轩, 曾韬睿, 刘谢攀. 基于I-D阈值的滑坡气象预警双指标模型[J]. 地质科技通报, 2024, 43(1): 262-274. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20220254
GONG Quanbing, YIN Kunlong, XIAO Changgui, CHEN Lixia, YAN Liangxuan, ZENG Taorui, LIU Xiepan. Double-index model of landslide meteorological warning based on the I-D threshold[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2024, 43(1): 262-274. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20220254
Citation: GONG Quanbing, YIN Kunlong, XIAO Changgui, CHEN Lixia, YAN Liangxuan, ZENG Taorui, LIU Xiepan. Double-index model of landslide meteorological warning based on the I-D threshold[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2024, 43(1): 262-274. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20220254

基于I-D阈值的滑坡气象预警双指标模型

doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20220254
基金项目: 

国家重点研发计划课题 2023YFC3007201

衢州市自然资源和规划局柯城分局科研项目 ZZCG2021058

详细信息
    作者简介:

    龚泉冰, E-mail: qbgong@cug.edu.cn

    通讯作者:

    殷坤龙, E-mail: yinkl@cug.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: P642.22

Double-index model of landslide meteorological warning based on the I-D threshold

More Information
  • 摘要:

    确定降雨阈值对于管控降雨型滑坡灾害风险具有重要意义。以浙江衢州市98处降雨型滑坡为例进行降雨阈值研究。在统计分析1970-2019年梅汛期间诱发滑坡降雨特征的基础上,首先对比分析I-DE-DE-I曲线建立的降雨阈值模型,然后基于I-D阈值建立以当日降雨量R0和5 d有效降雨量R5为预警指标的滑坡气象预警双指标模型,最后采用历史降雨和滑坡数据检验模型的合理性和可靠性。结果表明:(1)I-D模型对于降雨型滑坡的预测能力优于E-DE-I模型;(2)按双指标模型反演衢州市历史50 a滑坡气象预警情况,红色、橙色和黄色预警的年均预警次数为1.5,3.2,9.3次,具有较高的合理性;20处验证滑坡点被双指标模型准确预警,其中15处为红色和橙色预警,此外模型成功预警了2014年全部8处降雨型滑坡;(3)用于检验模型预测能力的7处滞后性滑坡全部成功预警,其中3处橙色预警、3处黄色预警和1处蓝色预警。本研究提出的预警模型有助于衢州市滑坡气象预警发布,为政府部门开展风险评价和管理提供新思路与方法。

     

  • 图 1  诱发滑坡的降雨事件定义

    Figure 1.  Definition of the rainfall events inducing landslides

    图 2  衢州市地理位置及区内滑坡

    Figure 2.  Location and typical landslides in Quzhou

    图 3  衢州市1970—2019年各月平均降雨量和滑坡分布

    Figure 3.  Average monthly rainfall and landslide distribution in Quzhou from 1970 to 2019

    图 4  衢州市2013—2018年累计降雨量

    Figure 4.  Accumulated rainfall during 2013-2018 in Quzhou

    图 5  衢州市2011年(a)和2017年(b)梅汛降雨过程

    Figure 5.  Rainfall process of the plum rain season in 2011 (a) and 2017 (b) in Quzhou

    图 6  衢州市1970—2019年各月累计暴雨次数和滑坡分布图

    Figure 6.  Rainstorm frequency and landslide distribution in Quzhou from 1970 to 2019

    图 7  降雨诱发滑坡的I-D阈值曲线

    Figure 7.  Rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) thresholds for the initiation of landslides

    图 8  降雨诱发滑坡的E-D阈值曲线

    Figure 8.  Cumulated event rainfall-duration(E-D) thresholds for the initiation of landslides

    图 9  降雨诱发滑坡的E-I阈值曲线

    Figure 9.  Cumulated event rainfall-intensity(E-I) threshold for the initiation of landslides

    图 10  阈值模型预测能力检验

    Figure 10.  Prediction ability test of the threshold model

    图 11  滑坡发生当日降雨量与前期有效降雨量分布图

    Figure 11.  Distribution of rainfall on the day of landslide occurrence and effective rainfall in the earlier period

    图 12  滑坡发生当日降雨量与前期降雨量

    Figure 12.  Rainfall on the day of the landslide occurrence and in the earlier period

    图 13  衢州市1970—2019年按双指标模型预警等级分布

    Figure 13.  Warning level distribution by the double-index model in Quzhou from 1970 to 2019

    图 14  双指标模型预警可靠性验证

    Figure 14.  Reliability verification of the early warning effect of the double-index model

    图 15  双指标模型预警滞后性滑坡

    Figure 15.  Prediction of hysteresis landslides with the double-index model

    表  1  衢州市国家地面气象观测站基本情况

    Table  1.   Basic information of national ground meteorological observation stations in Quzhou

    区站号 站名 站类 观测场海拔/m 经度/(°) 纬度/(°) 平均年降雨量/mm 最大日降雨量/mm
    58633 衢州 国家基本气象站 82.4 118.890 8 28.994 2 1 700 206
    58547 龙游 国家气象观测站 66.2 119.194 7 29.040 3 1 661 170.9
    58631 常山 国家气象观测站 137 118.507 2 28.907 2 1 769 204.2
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  验证滑坡数据集分布情况

    Table  2.   Distribution of threshold model prediction ability test landslides

    滑坡概率 <15% [15%, 30%) [30%, 60%) [60%, 85%] >85%
    I-D模型 0 4 3 4 9
    E-D模型 2 4 3 2 9
    E-I模型 7 4 2 3 4
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  基于I-D阈值的滑坡气象预警双指标模型

    Table  3.   Landslide meteorological warning double-index model based on the I-D threshold

    预警等级
    日降雨量R0/mm [25, 40) [40, 60) [60, 90) ≥90
    5 d有效降雨量R5/mm [50, 80) [80, 125) [125, 180) ≥180
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  衢州市按双指标模型50 a预警反演情况

    Table  4.   Release of early warning in Quzhou over the past 50 years

    预警等级 蓝色预警 黄色预警 橙色预警 红色预警
    R0预警/次 550 267 115 53
    R5预警/次 878 355 95 35
    综合预警/次 1 027 463 162 76
    年均次数 20.5 9.3 3.2 1.5
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  基于双指标模型的滑坡预警可靠性验证

    Table  5.   Verification of landslide prediction based on the double-index model

    预警等级 蓝色预警/处 黄色预警/处 橙色预警/处 红色预警/处
    R0预警 3 6 4 7
    R5预警 4 3 3 7
    综合预警 3 2 5 10
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  6  衢州市2014年滑坡发生和预警发布情况

    Table  6.   Landslide and release of the early warning in Quzhou in 2014

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  • 收稿日期:  2022-06-20
  • 录用日期:  2022-10-31
  • 修回日期:  2022-10-29

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