基于<i>I-D</i>阈值的滑坡气象预警双指标模型

龚泉冰; 殷坤龙; 肖常贵; 陈丽霞; 严亮轩; 曾韬睿; 刘谢攀

doi:10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20220254

基于I-D阈值的滑坡气象预警双指标模型

doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20220254

龚泉冰^1a,,
殷坤龙^1a, ,,
肖常贵^{2, 3},
陈丽霞^1b,
严亮轩^1a,
曾韬睿^1c,
刘谢攀^1a

1a.
中国地质大学工程学院, 武汉 430074
1b.
中国地质大学地球物理与空间信息学院, 武汉 430074
1c.
中国地质大学地质调查研究院, 武汉 430074
2.
浙江省地质环境监测中心, 杭州 310007
3.
自然资源部浙江地质灾害野外科学观测研究站, 杭州 310007

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划课题 2023YFC3007201

衢州市自然资源和规划局柯城分局科研项目 ZZCG2021058

详细信息

作者简介:
龚泉冰, E-mail: qbgong@cug.edu.cn

通讯作者:
殷坤龙, E-mail: yinkl@cug.edu.cn

中图分类号: P642.22
计量
- 文章访问数: 206
- PDF下载量: 42
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-06-20
- 录用日期: 2022-10-31
- 修回日期: 2022-10-29

Double-index model of landslide meteorological warning based on the I-D threshold

1a.
China University of Geosciences(Wuhan) Faculty of Engineering, Wuhan 430074, China
1b.
China University of Geosciences(Wuhan) School of Geophysics and Geomatics, Wuhan 430074, China
1c.
China University of Geosciences(Wuhan) Institute of Geological Survey, Wuhan 430074, China
2.
Zhejiang Center of Geological Environment Monitoring, Hangzhou 310007, China
3.
Observation & Research Station of Geohazards in Zhejiang, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hangzhou 310007, China

More Information

Author Bio:
GONG Quanbing, E-mail: qbgong@cug.edu.cn

Corresponding author: YIN Kunlong, E-mail: yinkl@cug.edu.cn

摘要

摘要:
确定降雨阈值对于管控降雨型滑坡灾害风险具有重要意义。以浙江衢州市98处降雨型滑坡为例进行降雨阈值研究。在统计分析1970-2019年梅汛期间诱发滑坡降雨特征的基础上，首先对比分析I-D、E-D和E-I曲线建立的降雨阈值模型，然后基于I-D阈值建立以当日降雨量R₀和5 d有效降雨量R₅为预警指标的滑坡气象预警双指标模型，最后采用历史降雨和滑坡数据检验模型的合理性和可靠性。结果表明：（1）I-D模型对于降雨型滑坡的预测能力优于E-D和E-I模型；（2）按双指标模型反演衢州市历史50 a滑坡气象预警情况，红色、橙色和黄色预警的年均预警次数为1.5，3.2，9.3次，具有较高的合理性；20处验证滑坡点被双指标模型准确预警，其中15处为红色和橙色预警，此外模型成功预警了2014年全部8处降雨型滑坡；（3）用于检验模型预测能力的7处滞后性滑坡全部成功预警，其中3处橙色预警、3处黄色预警和1处蓝色预警。本研究提出的预警模型有助于衢州市滑坡气象预警发布，为政府部门开展风险评价和管理提供新思路与方法。
- 降雨型滑坡 /
- 有效降雨量 /
- 降雨阈值 /
- 双指标模型 /
- 滑坡气象预警
Abstract: Objective
Determining the rainfall threshold is of great significance in controlling the risk of rainfall-induced landslides.
Methods
A total of 98 rainfall-induced landslides in Quzhou, Zhejiang Province, were used to study the rainfall threshold. Based on the statistical analysis of the rainfall data from 1970 to 2019, the rainfall threshold models established by the I-D, E-D and E-I curves are compared and analyzed. Subsequently, a landslide meteorological warning double-index model with daily rainfall R₀ and 5-day effective rainfall R₅ as warning indices was established based on the I-D model. Finally, the rationality and reliability of the model were confirmed using historical rainfall and landslide data.
Results
The results show that: (1) I-D is better than E-D and E-I in predicting rainfall-induced landslides; (2) The double-index model reasonably forecasts the average annual warning times of red, orange and yellow landslides in Quzhou, which are 1.5, 3.2 and 9.3, respectively; 20 landslides can be accurately predicted by the double-index model, of which 15 landslides are red and orange, and the model has successfully predicted all eight landslides in 2014; (3) The 7 hysteretic landslides used to test the prediction ability of the model all fell into the warning area, including 3 orange, 3 yellow and 1 blue events.
Conclusion
The results proposed in this paper are helpful for the meteorological warning of landslides in Quzhou and provide new methods for government risk assessment and management.
- rainfall-induced landslide /
- effective rainfall /
- rainfall threshold /
- double-index model /
- landslide meteorological warning
注释:

所有作者声明不存在利益冲突。

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图 1 诱发滑坡的降雨事件定义

Figure 1. Definition of the rainfall events inducing landslides

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图 2 衢州市地理位置及区内滑坡

Figure 2. Location and typical landslides in Quzhou

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图 3 衢州市1970—2019年各月平均降雨量和滑坡分布

Figure 3. Average monthly rainfall and landslide distribution in Quzhou from 1970 to 2019

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图 4 衢州市2013—2018年累计降雨量

Figure 4. Accumulated rainfall during 2013-2018 in Quzhou

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图 5 衢州市2011年(a)和2017年(b)梅汛降雨过程

Figure 5. Rainfall process of the plum rain season in 2011 (a) and 2017 (b) in Quzhou

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图 6 衢州市1970—2019年各月累计暴雨次数和滑坡分布图

Figure 6. Rainstorm frequency and landslide distribution in Quzhou from 1970 to 2019

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图 7 降雨诱发滑坡的I-D阈值曲线

Figure 7. Rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) thresholds for the initiation of landslides

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图 8 降雨诱发滑坡的E-D阈值曲线

Figure 8. Cumulated event rainfall-duration(E-D) thresholds for the initiation of landslides

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图 9 降雨诱发滑坡的E-I阈值曲线

Figure 9. Cumulated event rainfall-intensity(E-I) threshold for the initiation of landslides

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图 10 阈值模型预测能力检验

Figure 10. Prediction ability test of the threshold model

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图 11 滑坡发生当日降雨量与前期有效降雨量分布图

Figure 11. Distribution of rainfall on the day of landslide occurrence and effective rainfall in the earlier period

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图 12 滑坡发生当日降雨量与前期降雨量

Figure 12. Rainfall on the day of the landslide occurrence and in the earlier period

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图 13 衢州市1970—2019年按双指标模型预警等级分布

Figure 13. Warning level distribution by the double-index model in Quzhou from 1970 to 2019

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图 14 双指标模型预警可靠性验证

Figure 14. Reliability verification of the early warning effect of the double-index model

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图 15 双指标模型预警滞后性滑坡

Figure 15. Prediction of hysteresis landslides with the double-index model

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表 1 衢州市国家地面气象观测站基本情况

Table 1. Basic information of national ground meteorological observation stations in Quzhou

区站号	站名	站类	观测场海拔/m	经度/(°)	纬度/(°)	平均年降雨量/mm	最大日降雨量/mm
58633	衢州	国家基本气象站	82.4	118.890 8	28.994 2	1 700	206
58547	龙游	国家气象观测站	66.2	119.194 7	29.040 3	1 661	170.9
58631	常山	国家气象观测站	137	118.507 2	28.907 2	1 769	204.2

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表 2 验证滑坡数据集分布情况

Table 2. Distribution of threshold model prediction ability test landslides

滑坡概率	＜15%	[15%, 30%)	[30%, 60%)	[60%, 85%]	>85%
I-D模型	0	4	3	4	9
E-D模型	2	4	3	2	9
E-I模型	7	4	2	3	4

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表 3 基于I-D阈值的滑坡气象预警双指标模型

Table 3. Landslide meteorological warning double-index model based on the I-D threshold

预警等级	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ
日降雨量R₀/mm	[25, 40)	[40, 60)	[60, 90)	≥90
5 d有效降雨量R₅/mm	[50, 80)	[80, 125)	[125, 180)	≥180

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表 4 衢州市按双指标模型50 a预警反演情况

Table 4. Release of early warning in Quzhou over the past 50 years

预警等级	蓝色预警	黄色预警	橙色预警	红色预警
按R₀预警/次	550	267	115	53
按R₅预警/次	878	355	95	35
综合预警/次	1 027	463	162	76
年均次数	20.5	9.3	3.2	1.5

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表 5 基于双指标模型的滑坡预警可靠性验证

Table 5. Verification of landslide prediction based on the double-index model

预警等级	蓝色预警/处	黄色预警/处	橙色预警/处	红色预警/处
按R₀预警	3	6	4	7
按R₅预警	4	3	3	7
综合预警	3	2	5	10

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表 6 衢州市2014年滑坡发生和预警发布情况

Table 6. Landslide and release of the early warning in Quzhou in 2014

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