基于RAMMS数值模拟的短时强降雨型泥石流危险性评价

庞海松; 谢骏锦; 张小明; 王官贺; 张明

doi:10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20230153

基于RAMMS数值模拟的短时强降雨型泥石流危险性评价

doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20230153

1.
中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院, 武汉 430074
2.
浙江省工程物探勘察设计院有限公司, 杭州 310005

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目 41472264

详细信息

作者简介:
庞海松, E-mail: panghaisong@cug.edu.cn

通讯作者:
张明, E-mail: zhangming8157@126.com

中图分类号: P642.23
计量
- 文章访问数: 427
- PDF下载量: 51
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-03-22
- 修回日期: 2023-07-28

Hazard assessment of debris flow induced by short-time heavy rainfall based on RAMMS numerical simulation

1.
Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences(Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
2.
Zhejiang Engineering Geophysical Prospecting and Design Institute Co., Ltd., Hangzhou 310005, China

More Information

Author Bio:
PANG Haisong, E-mail: panghaisong@cug.edu.cn

Corresponding author: ZHANG Ming, E-mail: zhangming8157@126.com

摘要

摘要:
浙江省由短时强降雨诱发的泥石流灾害频发, 严重威胁当地居民的生命财产安全, 因此对此类泥石流进行危险性评价对浙江省"灾害智治"工作具有十分重要的理论与实际应用价值。为研究浙江短时强降雨诱发小型泥石流的危险性, 选取武山坑泥石流为对象, 通过现场调查、三维倾斜摄影与数值模拟等手段, 查明了武山坑泥石流的地质环境与发育特征, 揭示了由短时强降雨诱发的泥石流灾害链生过程特征, 选用RAMMS软件对不同降雨频率下泥石流运动特征进行了模拟, 获取了泥石流深度、流速、堆积范围等特征参数, 并基于特征参数进行了泥石流危险性评价。研究结果表明: 陡坡处松散岩土体在短时强降雨作用下发生浅层滑坡, 随后在坡面与沟道地形控制下向沟口运移, 运动过程中通过侵蚀作用扩大泥石流规模, 最终在宽缓堆积区沉积。随着研究区降雨强度增大至50 a一遇及100 a一遇, 泥石流冲出规模扩大, 但受限于堆积区宽缓的地形条件, 未能于沟口形成有效冲出; 但堆积扇上游居民区泥石流深度、流速等强度指标显著增大, 堆积区内高强度区域面积大小由7 276 m²增大至12 660 m²。结合泥石流活跃性分析结果, 采取形成区雨量监测、主沟谷流通区构建刚性、柔性或狭缝拦挡坝以及堆积区设置导流渠相结合的治理措施, 可有效保障居民生命财产安全。研究成果可为武山坑及浙江省此类泥石流危险性评价、防治工程设计提供参考。
- 短临强降雨 /
- 泥石流 /
- 灾害链 /
- RAMMS /
- 危险性评价
Abstract: Objective
Debris flows caused by short-term heavy rainfall are a frequent occurrence in Zhejiang Province and pose a serious threat to the lives and property of mountain residents. Therefore, the assessment of debris flow risk has significant theoretical and practical value for disaster management in the province. To investigate the hazard of debris flows caused by short-term heavy rainfall, the Wushankeng watershed was selected for research by means of field investigations and remote sensing interpretations, combined with numerical simulation.
Methods
The obtained results revealed the geological environment, development characteristics and disaster chain formation mechanism of debris flow in the watershed. The RAMMS numerical simulation software was used to simulate the debris flow depth and the velocity under different rainfall frequencies, and the hazard assessment was carried out based on these movement characteristics.
Results
The results of the research indicated that loose rock and soil at steep slopes experienced shallow landslides under the effect of short-term heavy rainfall. Then, under the control of the slope and gully topography, it migrated to the mouth of the gully, and during the movement, the scale of the debris flow was expanded by erosion. Finally, it was deposited in the wide and gentle accumulation area. As the intensity of the study area rainfall increased to a 50-year or 100-year occurrence, the scale of the debris flow increased, but it was limited by the gentle topographical conditions of the accumulation area, and it was unable to effectively discharge at the mouth of the gully. However, the indicators of mud depth and flow velocity in the resident areas upstream of the accumulation fan significantly increased, and the area of high-intensity areas in the accumulation area increased from 7 276 m² to 12 660 m². Combined with the results of debris flow activity analysis, the combination of rainfall monitoring in the formation area, constructing rigid, flexible, or slit check dams in the circulation area of the main channel, and setting up drainage channels in the accumulation area can effectively protect the lives and properties of residents.
Conclusion
The research results can provide reference for debris flow hazard assessment and engineering treatment in the study area and Zhejiang Province.
- short-time heavy rainfall /
- debris flow /
- disaster chain /
- RAMMS /
- hazard assessment
注释:

所有作者声明不存在利益冲突。

HTML全文

图 1 研究区地理位置图

Figure 1. Location of the study area

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图 2 泥石流流域地质简图

Figure 2. Geological sketch of debris flow watershed

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图 3 泥石流期间降雨数据

Figure 3. Rainfull data during debris flow

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图 4 武山坑泥石流发育特征

a.泥石流分区特征；b.Ⅰ~Ⅳ号浅层滑坡；c.Ⅴ号浅层滑坡；d.沟岸浅层滑坡；e.被冲毁的建筑；f.泥石流堆积体

Figure 4. Development characteristics of debris flow in Wushangkeng

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图 5 滑坡-泥石流灾害链链生过程示意图(Ⅰ~Ⅴ为浅层滑坡编号)

Figure 5. Schematic diagram of disaster chain process governing of landslide-debris flow

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图 6 校核工况下泥石流运动特征

a.最大泥石流深度；b.最大流动速度

Figure 6. Movement characteristics of debris flow under check condition

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图 7 泥石流堆积特征

Figure 7. Accumulation characteristics of debris flow

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图 8 泥石流危险性划分标准

Figure 8. Classification criteria of hozard for debris flow

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图 9 泥石流危险性分区图

Figure 9. Hazard zoning of debris flow

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表 1 泥石流堆积体颗粒分析及重度计算结果

Table 1. Results of particle analysis and gravity calculation of debris flow accumulation

各粒径组成									计算参数		计算重度
各粒径组成									P₀₅	P₂	γ_D/(t·m^-3)
粒径/mmw_B/%	>2022.4	[10, 20]15.2	[5, 10)11.2	[2, 5)10.3	[0.5, 2)13.3	[0.25, 0.5)13.6	[0.05, 0.25)10	< 0.054	0.04	0.59	1.78
注：P₀₅为粒径 < 0.05 mm的细颗粒的体积分数，小数; P₂为粒径>2mm的粗颗粒的体积分数，小数

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表 2 不同降雨频率下泥石流流量计算结果

Table 2. Calculated results of the debris flow under different rainfall frequencies

释放点	降雨频率p/%	降雨量/(mm·h^-1)	清水洪峰流量Q_p/(m³·s^-1)	泥石流峰值流量Q_c/(m³·s^-1)	一次过程总量Q/m³
主沟G1	5	75.1	19.7	46.1	8 762.7
	2	89.3	24.7	57.8	10 986.6
	1	100.2	28.2	66.0	12 545.3
支沟G2	5	75.1	3.9	8.3	1 577.7
	2	89.3	4.9	10.5	1 995.8
	1	100.2	5.7	12.2	2 318.9

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表 3 泥石流数值模拟精度表

Table 3. Accuracy of numerical simulation of debris flow

泥石流名称	泥石流堆积面积/10³ m²				冲出方量/10³ m³		误差率/%
泥石流名称	实测值	模拟值	重合值	准确度A/%	模拟值	调查值	误差率/%
武山坑泥石流	9.5	10.6	9.0	80.4	8.1	9.2	-12

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表 4 泥石流强度划分

Table 4. Classification of debris flow intensity

强度	堆积深度H/m	关系式	堆积深度H与流速V的乘积
高	H≥2.5	OR	VH≥2.5
中	0.5≤H < 2.5	AND	0.5≤VH < 2.5
低	0≤H < 0.5	AND	VH < 0.5

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表 5 各降雨频率下泥石流堆积区危险性分区统计

Table 5. Hazard zoning of debris flow accumulation areas under different rainfall frequencies

降雨频率/%	高危险性		中危险性		低危险性
降雨频率/%	面积/m²	占比/%	面积/m²	占比/%	面积/m²	占比/%
5	7 276	32.2	9 500	42.0	5 828	25.8
2	9 952	37.6	11 972	45.3	4 536	17.1
1	0	0	12 660	40.5	18 576	59.5

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