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新华滑坡变形演化规律与预警判据

李钰 陈明亮 黄会宝 蒋楠 吕鹏飞 周家文

李钰, 陈明亮, 黄会宝, 蒋楠, 吕鹏飞, 周家文. 新华滑坡变形演化规律与预警判据[J]. 地质科技通报, 2024, 43(3): 227-239. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20230306
引用本文: 李钰, 陈明亮, 黄会宝, 蒋楠, 吕鹏飞, 周家文. 新华滑坡变形演化规律与预警判据[J]. 地质科技通报, 2024, 43(3): 227-239. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20230306
LI Yu, CHEN Mingliang, HUANG Huibao, JIANG Nan, LÜ Pengfei, ZHOU Jiawen. Deformation evolution law and early warning criterion of Xinhua landslide[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2024, 43(3): 227-239. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20230306
Citation: LI Yu, CHEN Mingliang, HUANG Huibao, JIANG Nan, LÜ Pengfei, ZHOU Jiawen. Deformation evolution law and early warning criterion of Xinhua landslide[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2024, 43(3): 227-239. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20230306

新华滑坡变形演化规律与预警判据

doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20230306
基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金长江水科学研究联合基金项目 U2240221

国家自然科学基金面上项目 41977229

详细信息
    作者简介:

    李钰, E-mail: li_yu_9612@163.com

    通讯作者:

    周家文,E-mail:jwzhou@scu.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: P642.22

Deformation evolution law and early warning criterion of Xinhua landslide

More Information
  • 摘要:

    为揭示四川省泸定县新华滑坡在水库蓄水、库水位波动以及季节性降雨综合作用下的变形演化规律, 探讨其在多因素耦合作用下滑坡岩土体强度劣化的渐进累积效应。基于对水电工程库区新华滑坡的现场调查及多源长序列监测数据分析, 并结合滑坡累计位移-时间S-t曲线3阶段演化特征与新华滑坡实测S-t曲线, 对该滑坡3个阶跃性变形周期的演化阶段进行了判识与划分, 同时采用改进的切线角方法进行了计算与分析, 构建了以改进切线角预警阈值为依据的新华滑坡分级预警定量划分标准。研究结果表明, 水库蓄水初期水位的短期大幅度上升、水库运行期的水位快速下降及季节性强降雨影响是新华滑坡变形加速的主要诱因。根据分析与探讨, 改进切线角预警阈值能在一定程度上为辨别新华滑坡现阶段的稳定状态与潜在风险提供指导, 但仍应考虑多重预警指标并综合滑坡体宏观变形破坏迹象进行判定。

     

  • 图 1  中国各类地质灾害分布比例图(2017-2021年)

    Figure 1.  Distribution ratio map of various geological disasters in China (2017-2021)

    图 2  四川省泸定县新华滑坡全貌图

    Figure 2.  Overall view of the Xinhua landslide in Luding County, Sichuan Province

    图 3  新华滑坡GNSS监测点布置平面图

    Figure 3.  Layout plan of the Xinhua landslide GNSS monitoring sites

    图 4  新华滑坡代表性剖面图

    Figure 4.  Representative profiles of the Xinhua landslide

    图 5  水电库区水位实际运行情况

    Figure 5.  Actual operation of the water level in the hydropower reservoir area

    图 6  新华滑坡各地表位移监测点累计位移、库水位以及降雨量监测曲线

    Figure 6.  Monitoring curve of cumulative displacement, reservoir water level and rainfall at the surface displacement monitoring sites of the Xinhua landslide

    图 7  新华滑坡在库水-降雨联合作用下的变形演化规律

    a.XP01监测点; b.XP02监测点; c.XP04监测点

    Figure 7.  Deformation evolution of the Xinhua landslide under the combined action of reservoir water-rainfall

    图 8  不同情况下新华滑坡边坡变形机制示意图

    Figure 8.  Deformation mechanism of the Xinhua landslide under different conditions

    图 9  渐变型滑坡累计位移-时间(S-t)曲线及其演化阶段划分示意图

    Figure 9.  Cumulative deformation-time(S-t) curve of progressive landslide and its evolution stage division diagram

    图 10  库区滑坡阶梯状演化特征及各阶段划分示意图

    Figure 10.  Schematic diagram of the stepped evolution characteristics and division of each stage for reservoir landslide

    图 11  新华滑坡XP01与XP02监测点累计位移-时间曲线及其变形阶段划分示意图

    Figure 11.  Cumulative displacement-time curve of the Xinhua landslide at the XP01 and XP02 monitoring sites and corresponding deformation stage division diagram

    图 12  新华滑坡监测点3个阶跃性变形周期的T-t曲线及对应切线角值

    Figure 12.  T-t curves and corresponding tangent angle values of three step deformation periods at the Xinhua landslide monitoring sites

    表  1  基于滑坡变形演化阶段的预警级别划分标准

    Table  1.   Classification standard of warning level based on the landslide deformation evolution stage

    变形阶段 预警级别 警报形式
    等速变形阶段 注意级 蓝色
    初加速阶段 警示级 黄色
    中加速阶段 警戒级 橙色
    加加速(临滑)阶段 警报级 红色
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  基于改进切线角方法的新华滑坡预警阈值与级别划分标准

    Table  2.   Warning thresholds and classification standards for the Xinhua landslide based on the improved tangent angle method

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  • 收稿日期:  2023-05-29
  • 录用日期:  2023-09-21
  • 修回日期:  2023-09-19

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