新华滑坡变形演化规律与预警判据

李钰; 陈明亮; 黄会宝; 蒋楠; 吕鹏飞; 周家文

doi:10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20230306

新华滑坡变形演化规律与预警判据

doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20230306

李钰^{1, 2,},
陈明亮²,
黄会宝³,
蒋楠²,
吕鹏飞³,
周家文^2, ,

1.
中国电建集团贵阳勘测设计研究院有限公司, 贵阳 550081
2.
四川大学水利水电学院, 成都 610065
3.
国能大渡河流域水电开发有限公司, 成都 610065

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金长江水科学研究联合基金项目 U2240221

国家自然科学基金面上项目 41977229

详细信息

作者简介:
李钰, E-mail: li_yu_9612@163.com

通讯作者:
周家文，E-mail：jwzhou@scu.edu.cn

中图分类号: P642.22
计量
- 文章访问数: 343
- PDF下载量: 27
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-05-29
- 录用日期: 2023-09-21
- 修回日期: 2023-09-19

Deformation evolution law and early warning criterion of Xinhua landslide

1.
PowerChina Guiyang Engineering Corporation Limited, Guiyang 550081, China
2.
College of Water Resource and Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
3.
Guoneng Dadu River Basin Hydropower Development Corporation Limited, Chengdu 610065, China

More Information

Author Bio:
LI Yu, E-mail: li_yu_9612@163.com

Corresponding author: ZHOU Jiawen, E-mail: jwzhou@scu.edu.cn

摘要

摘要:
为揭示四川省泸定县新华滑坡在水库蓄水、库水位波动以及季节性降雨综合作用下的变形演化规律, 探讨其在多因素耦合作用下滑坡岩土体强度劣化的渐进累积效应。基于对水电工程库区新华滑坡的现场调查及多源长序列监测数据分析, 并结合滑坡累计位移-时间S-t曲线3阶段演化特征与新华滑坡实测S-t曲线, 对该滑坡3个阶跃性变形周期的演化阶段进行了判识与划分, 同时采用改进的切线角方法进行了计算与分析, 构建了以改进切线角预警阈值为依据的新华滑坡分级预警定量划分标准。研究结果表明, 水库蓄水初期水位的短期大幅度上升、水库运行期的水位快速下降及季节性强降雨影响是新华滑坡变形加速的主要诱因。根据分析与探讨, 改进切线角预警阈值能在一定程度上为辨别新华滑坡现阶段的稳定状态与潜在风险提供指导, 但仍应考虑多重预警指标并综合滑坡体宏观变形破坏迹象进行判定。
- 库区滑坡 /
- 水位波动 /
- 变形监测 /
- 演化规律 /
- 预警判据 /
- 四川新华滑坡
Abstract: Objective
To reveal the deformation evolution of the Xinhua landslide in Luding County, Sichuan Province under the comprehensive effects of reservoir impoundment, reservoir water level fluctuations and seasonal rainfall, and to explore the progressive cumulative effect of the strength degradation of the landslide rock and soil mass under the coupling of multiple factors.
Methods
In this paper, based on a field investigation and multisource long sequence monitoring data analysis of the Xinhua landslide in the reservoir area of the hydropower project, combined with the three-stage evolution characteristics of the landslide cumulative deformation-time (S-t) curve and the measured S-t curve of the Xinhua landslide, the evolution stages of the three-step deformation cycles of the Xinhua landslide are identified and divided. At the same time, the improved tangent angle method is used for calculation and analysis, and a quantitative classification standard for Xinhua landslide classification early warning based on the improved displacement tangent angle early warning threshold is constructed.
Results
The results show that the short-term large increase of water level during the initial impoundment period, the rapid decrease of water level during the reservoir operation period and the influence of seasonal heavy rainfall are the main factors to accelerate the deformation of the Xinhua landslide.
Conclusion
According to the analysis and discussion, the improved displacement tangent angle early warning threshold can provide guidance for identifying the current stability state and potential risks of the Xinhua landslide to a certain extent, but multiple early warning indicators should still be considered, and the signs of macroscopic deformation and failure of landslides should be integrated for judgement.
- reservoir landslide /
- water level fluctuation /
- deformation monitoring /
- evolution law /
- early warning criterion /
- Xinhua landslide in Sichuan Province
注释:

所有作者声明不存在利益冲突。

HTML全文

图 1 中国各类地质灾害分布比例图(2017-2021年)

Figure 1. Distribution ratio map of various geological disasters in China (2017-2021)

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图 2 四川省泸定县新华滑坡全貌图

Figure 2. Overall view of the Xinhua landslide in Luding County, Sichuan Province

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图 3 新华滑坡GNSS监测点布置平面图

Figure 3. Layout plan of the Xinhua landslide GNSS monitoring sites

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图 4 新华滑坡代表性剖面图

Figure 4. Representative profiles of the Xinhua landslide

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图 5 水电库区水位实际运行情况

Figure 5. Actual operation of the water level in the hydropower reservoir area

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图 6 新华滑坡各地表位移监测点累计位移、库水位以及降雨量监测曲线

Figure 6. Monitoring curve of cumulative displacement, reservoir water level and rainfall at the surface displacement monitoring sites of the Xinhua landslide

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图 7 新华滑坡在库水-降雨联合作用下的变形演化规律

a.XP01监测点; b.XP02监测点; c.XP04监测点

Figure 7. Deformation evolution of the Xinhua landslide under the combined action of reservoir water-rainfall

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图 8 不同情况下新华滑坡边坡变形机制示意图

Figure 8. Deformation mechanism of the Xinhua landslide under different conditions

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图 9 渐变型滑坡累计位移-时间(S-t)曲线及其演化阶段划分示意图

Figure 9. Cumulative deformation-time(S-t) curve of progressive landslide and its evolution stage division diagram

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图 10 库区滑坡阶梯状演化特征及各阶段划分示意图

Figure 10. Schematic diagram of the stepped evolution characteristics and division of each stage for reservoir landslide

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图 11 新华滑坡XP01与XP02监测点累计位移-时间曲线及其变形阶段划分示意图

Figure 11. Cumulative displacement-time curve of the Xinhua landslide at the XP01 and XP02 monitoring sites and corresponding deformation stage division diagram

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 12 新华滑坡监测点3个阶跃性变形周期的T-t曲线及对应切线角值

Figure 12. T-t curves and corresponding tangent angle values of three step deformation periods at the Xinhua landslide monitoring sites

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 基于滑坡变形演化阶段的预警级别划分标准

Table 1. Classification standard of warning level based on the landslide deformation evolution stage

变形阶段	预警级别	警报形式
等速变形阶段	注意级	蓝色
初加速阶段	警示级	黄色
中加速阶段	警戒级	橙色
加加速(临滑)阶段	警报级	红色

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 基于改进切线角方法的新华滑坡预警阈值与级别划分标准

Table 2. Warning thresholds and classification standards for the Xinhua landslide based on the improved tangent angle method

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