Landslide Disaster Vulnerability Mapping Study in Henan Province: Comparison of Different Machine Learning Models
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摘要:
河南省具有复杂的地貌类型,面临着频繁发生滑坡灾害的挑战,因此进行高效准确的滑坡易发性制图对于地方政府和居民具有重要意义。【目的】但是,在滑坡易发性制图研究中,如何选取适合河南省滑坡灾害数据集的机器学习模型提高评价精度的对比研究仍需进一步开展。【方法】以河南省为研究区,收集滑坡数据并编录成滑坡灾害数据库。通过递归特征消除法筛选出对滑坡相对影响最高的11个因子(坡度、高程、平面曲率、剖面曲率、土地覆盖、岩性、土壤类型、降水量、道路密度、河流密度、断裂带密度)整合成空间数据集,训练多层感知机神经网络、随机森林、极端梯度提升和支持向量机模型并使用接收者受试特征曲线下面积(AUC)评估各个模型性能,制作高精度滑坡易发性分区图。【结果】研究结果表明,MLP模型对河南省滑坡灾害数据集适配性最强,AUC达到0.95。相较于SVM、XGBoost和RF模型,MLP模型预测的滑坡灾害高易发区的面积占比最小,能加精确地识别潜在滑坡灾害高风险区域。预测的极高和高易发区主要分布在豫西山地、丘陵地区,地形因素对河南省滑坡灾害发育具有主导作用。【结论】研究成果可为大尺度区域开展高精度滑坡灾害易发性评价提供参考。
Abstract:Henan Province has a complex geomorphological type and faces the challenge of frequent landslide disasters. Therefore, efficient and accurate landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) has great significance to local governments and residents. [Objective] However, in the study of LSM, how to choose the suitable machine learning model for Henan landslide disaster data set to improve the evaluation accuracy still needs further investigation. [Methods] The research focuses on Henan Province, where landslide data is collected and compiled into a landslide disaster database. Using the recursive feature elimination method, 11 factors with the highest relative impact on landslides (slope, elevation, plan curvature, profile curvature, land cover, lithology, soil type, precipitation, road density, river density, fault density) are selected and integrated into a spatial dataset. Then, the models of multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network , random forest, extreme gradient boosting, and support vector machine were trained, and the performances of the models were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve and the area under the curve (AUC). In the end, we create high precision landslide susceptibility zoning map. [Results] The research results indicate that the MLP model has the strongest adaptability to the landslide disaster dataset in Henan Province, achieving the highest AUC of 0.95. In comparison to SVM, XGBoost, and RF models, the MLP model predicts the smallest proportion of landslide disasters in highly susceptible areas, thus more accurately defining high-risk regions for potential landslide disasters. The predicted extremely high and high susceptibility areas are mainly distributed in the western mountainous and hilly areas of Henan Province, where terrain factors play a dominant role in the development of landslide disasters. [Conclusion] The results can provide a reference for the evaluation of landslide susceptibility with high accuracy in large-scale regions.
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Key words:
- Landslide /
- Multilayer perceptron /
- Machine learning /
- Susceptibility mapping /
- Henan
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