基于不同地质环境分区的重庆市滑坡降雨阈值模型研究

谢洋义; 殷坤龙; 杜娟; 刘书豪; 邬礼扬; 刘谢攀

doi:10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20230375

基于不同地质环境分区的重庆市滑坡降雨阈值模型研究

doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20230375

谢洋义^{1a, 2,},
殷坤龙^1a, ,,
杜娟^1b,
刘书豪^1a,
邬礼扬^1a,
刘谢攀^1a

1a.
中国地质大学（武汉）工程学院
1b.
中国地质大学（武汉）环境学院，武汉 430074
2.
中国电力工程顾问集团西北电力设计院有限公司，西安 710075

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（42172318）

详细信息

作者简介:
谢洋义：E-mail：xieyangyi501@cug.edu.cn

通讯作者:
E-mail：yinkl@126.com

中图分类号: P642.22
计量
- 文章访问数: 404
- PDF下载量: 71
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-07-03
- 录用日期: 2023-08-17
- 修回日期: 2023-08-13
- 网络出版日期: 2023-12-17

Threshold model of landslide rainfall in Chongqing based on different geological environment zones

XIE Yangyi^{1a, 2
,},
YIN Kunlong^{1a
, ,},
DU Juan^1b,
LIU Shuhao^1a,
WU Liyang^1a,
LIU Xiepan^1a

1a.
China University of Geosciences(Wuhan) Faculty of Engineering
1b.
China University of Geosciences(Wuhan) School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences(Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
2.
Northwest Electric Power Design Institute Co. , Ltd. , China Power Engineering Consulting Group, Xi'an 710075, China

More Information

Author Bio:
E-mail：xieyangyi501@cug.edu.cn

Corresponding author: E-mail：yinkl@126.com

摘要

摘要:
考虑区域历史滑坡的降雨特征与地质环境，构建合理的降雨阈值模型，对区域滑坡灾害的预测预报十分重要。以重庆市2013-2021年的1368个降雨型滑坡为研究对象，基于详细的滑坡编录数据和区域地质环境资料，划分降雨事件，构建滑坡样本库。利用随机森林（RF）算法，建立了当日激发降雨量-前期有效降雨量（R_d-R_p）降雨阈值模型，基于概率分级划分了不同预警等级。以中等预警概率按孕灾环境、工程岩组、土地利用和土壤类型4种地质环境分别构建了19个临界降雨阈值判据。结果表明：R_d-R_p阈值模型能够很好地反映当日激发降雨量和前期有效降雨量对滑坡发育的影响，且前期有效降雨量在滑坡诱发中占主导作用。不同的地质环境类型对降雨因子的敏感性不同，地质构造、岩土体工程性质、植被覆盖以及土壤性质等对滑坡发育有重要影响。以坚硬岩为主的岩组阈值高于以软弱岩为主的岩组，林地的阈值大于耕地，受人类工程活动破坏严重的区域阈值会降低。利用随机森林方法为重庆市不同地质环境分区建立了降雨阈值判据，本研究可为重庆市降雨型滑坡的气象预警管理提供新的思路与借鉴依据。
- 降雨型滑坡 /
- 降雨阈值 /
- 有效降雨量 /
- 随机森林 /
- 地质环境分区 /
- 重庆市
Abstract: Objective
Considering the rainfall characteristics and geological environment of regional landslides, constructing a reasonable rainfall threshold model is crucial for the prediction and forecasting regional landslide disasters.
Methods
This study takes 1368 rain-induced landslides in Chongqing from 2013 to 2021 as the research object. Based on detailed landslide data and regional geological environment information, rainfall events were divided and a landslide sample database was constructed. Using the random forest (RF) algorithm, a rainfall threshold model of the day's triggered rainfall-previous rainfall-previous effective rainfall (R_d-R_p) was established, and different warning levels were classified based on probability grading. Based on the medium early warning probability, 19 threshold criteria for critical rainfall were constructed according to four geological environments: the disaster-prone environment, engineering rock group, land use, and soil type.
Results
The results show that the R_d-R_p threshold model can effectively reflect the impact of the daily excitation rainfall and the early effective rainfall on landslide development, and that early effective rainfall plays a dominant role in landslide induction. Different geological environment types show different sensitivities to rainfall factors, and geological structures, engineering properties of rock and soil masses, vegetation coverage, and soil properties have significant effects on landslide development. The threshold of rock formations dominated by hard rocks is higher than that dominated by weak rocks, and the threshold of forest land is greater than that of cultivated land. The threshold of areas severely damaged by human engineering activities will decrease.
Conclusion
This study can provide new ideas and references for the meteorological early warning management of rainfall-related landslide disasters in Chongqing.
- rainfall-induced landslide /
- rainfall threshold /
- effective rainfall /
- random forest /
- geological environment zone /
- Chongqing

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图 1 重庆市滑坡分布情况

Figure 1. Distribution of landslides in Chongqing

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 重庆市2013-2021年月均降雨量与滑坡灾害频次图

Figure 2. Frequency diagram of monthly average rainfall and landslide disaster in Chongqing from 2013 to 2021

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 基于不同地质环境分区的重庆市滑坡降雨阈值模型研究技术路线图

Figure 3. Technical roadmap for research on landslide rainfall threshold models in Chongqing based on different geological environment zones

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 划分降雨过程示意图

Figure 4. Schematic diagram of rainfall process division

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图 5 重庆市R_d-R_p临界降雨阈值曲线

Figure 5. Critical rainfall threshold curve of R_d-R_p in Chongqing

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 重庆市临界降雨阈值曲线验证

Figure 6. Verification of the critical rainfall threshold curve in Chongqing

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图 7 研究区不同孕灾环境下的滑坡分布及降雨阈值曲线（孕灾环境分区代号Ⅰ₁～Ⅳ同表2；P_50%为滑坡发生的中等概率；下同）

Figure 7. Landslide distributions and rainfall threshold curves under different disaster prone environments in the study area

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图 8 研究区不同工程岩组下的滑坡分布及降雨阈值曲线（工程岩组代号同表3）

Figure 8. Landslide distributions and rainfall threshold curves for different engineering rock formations in the study area

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图 9 研究区不同土地利用下的滑坡分布及降雨阈值曲线（土地利用代号同表4）

Figure 9. Landslide distributions and rainfall threshold curves for different land uses in the study area

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 10 研究区不同土壤类型下的滑坡分布及降雨阈值曲线（土壤类型代号同表5）

Figure 10. Landslide distributions and rainfall threshold curves for different soil types in the study area

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 不同的有效降雨量系数与滑坡相关性分析

Table 1. Correlation analysis between different effective rainfall coefficients and landslides

有效降雨量系数α	1.0	0.9	0.8	0.7	0.6
相关性系数	0.677^﹡﹡	0.709^﹡﹡	0.714^﹡﹡	0.697^﹡﹡	0.665^﹡﹡
注：^﹡﹡表示在0.01显著性水平下，显著相关

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表 2 研究区不同孕灾环境下的中等概率降雨阈值判据

Table 2. Medium probability rainfall threshold criteria for different disaster prone environments in the study area

孕灾环境分区名称	分区代号	面积占比S/%	滑坡数量N_L	滑坡事件N_E	滑坡点分布密度/%	阈值方程	AUT/mm²	R_p截距/mm
北大巴山弱岩溶化中山崩滑流孕灾亚区	Ⅰ₁	2.62	50	46	3.65
南大巴山强岩溶化中山滑坡崩塌孕灾亚区	Ⅰ₂	9.99	108	94	7.89	R_d=76.5−0.55R_p	5320	139.1
七曜山-巫山中山峡谷崩塌滑坡孕灾亚区	Ⅱ₁	4.74	56	38	4.09
七曜山-金佛山中山峡谷崩塌滑坡孕灾亚区	Ⅱ₂	7.97	168	148	12.28	R_d=63.2−0.72R_p	2773	87.78
黔江-酉阳岩溶化中山峡谷崩塌滑坡孕灾亚区	Ⅱ₃	13.16	108	84	7.89	R_d=58−0.58R_p	2900	100
开州-奉节北深丘、低山滑坡崩塌孕灾亚区	Ⅲ₁	5.76	160	123	11.70	R_d=68.3−0.62R_p	3761	110.16
云阳-南川北深丘、低山滑坡崩塌孕灾亚区	Ⅲ₂	4.57	260	199	19.01	R_d=47.6−0.57R_p	1994	83.8
方斗山-七曜山中低山滑坡崩塌孕灾亚区	Ⅲ₃	6.86	57	51	4.17
梁平-垫江平行岭谷滑坡崩塌孕灾亚区	Ⅲ₄	13.01	56	55	4.09
重庆市区四山平行岭谷滑坡崩塌孕灾亚区	Ⅲ₅	11.92	184	164	13.45	R_d=63.1−0.89R_p	2237	70.9
江津-綦江平行岭谷滑坡崩塌孕灾亚区	Ⅲ₆	13.89	98	87	7.16	R_d=65.3−0.71R_p	3003	91.97
渝西红层浅丘孕灾区	Ⅳ	5.50	63	52	4.61
注：AUT为曲线下面积，用以衡量阈值大小；R_p为前期有效降雨量；R_d为当日激发降雨量；下同

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表 3 研究区不同工程岩组下的中等概率降雨阈值判据

Table 3. Medium probability rainfall threshold criteria for different engineering rock formations in the study area

工程岩组名称	工程岩组代号	面积占比S/%	滑坡数量N_L	滑坡事件N_E	滑坡点分布密度/%	阈值方程	AUT/mm²	R_p截距/mm
坚硬块状各类侵入岩岩组	1	0.03	0	0	0
以坚硬层状碎屑岩为主的岩组	5	4.45	61	58	4.46
以较坚硬层状碎屑岩为主的岩组	6	0.16	0	0	0
以软弱层状碎屑岩为主的岩组	7	47.84	744	619	54.39	R_d=60.8−0.71R_p	2603	85.63
碎屑岩夹碳酸盐岩岩组	8	11.26	156	142	11.40	R_d=68.6−0.71R_p	3314	96.62
以坚硬层状碳酸盐岩为主的岩组	9	4.71	81	77	5.92	R_d=69.3−0.72R_p	3335	96.25
碳酸盐岩夹碎屑岩岩组	10	30.34	308	261	22.51	R_d=61.8−0.61R_p	3130	101.31
坚硬块状变质岩岩组	12	0.23	5	5	0.37
水系	100	0.98	13	13	0.95

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表 4 研究区不同土地利用下的中等概率降雨阈值判据

Table 4. Mediun probability rainfall threshold criteria under different land uses in the study area

土地利用名称	土地利用代号	面积占比S/%	滑坡数量N_L	滑坡事件N_E	滑坡点分布密度/%	阈值方程	AUT/mm²	R_p截距/mm
耕地	CR	46.64	797	666	58.26	R_d=66.5−0.75R_p	2949	88.7
林地	FO	41.90	369	331	26.97	R_d=67.6−0.68R_p	3360	99.4
草地	GR	6.03	85	83	6.21	R_d=56.1−0.60R_p	2623	93.5
灌木地	SH	0.65	8	8	0.58
湿地	WE	0.02	0	0	0.00
水体	WA	1.57	14	14	1.02
人造地表	IS	3.20	95	93	6.94	R_d=67.6−0.91R_p	2508	74.2
裸地	BA	0.01	0	0	0.00

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表 5 研究区不同土壤类型下的中等概率降雨阈值判据

Table 5. Medium probability rainfall threshold criteria under different soil types in the study area

土壤类型名称	土壤类型代号	面积占比S/%	滑坡数量N_L	滑坡事件N_E	滑坡点分布密度/%	阈值方程	AUT/mm²	R_p截距/mm
淋溶土	AL	18.81	200	184	14.62	R_d=72.2−0.80R_p	3258	90.25
半淋溶土	SS	0.54	5	5	0.37
钙层土	CL	0.40	4	4	0.29
干旱土	AS	0.58	4	4	0.29
初育土	NS	31.23	508	419	37.13	R_d=68.6−0.72R_p	3268	95.28
半水成土	SA	0.14	0	0	0
人为土	MS	15.38	214	194	15.64	R_d=61.6−0.73R_p	2599	84.38
高山土	TI	0.36	16	15	1.17
铁铝土	FS	31.37	400	352	29.24	R_d=63.3−0.70R_p	2856	90.23
城区	UA	0.09	4	3	0.29
湖泊、水库	LR	1.11	13	10	0.95

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