Application of machine learning models to geothermal groundwater temperature prediction
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摘要: 地热作为一种清洁能源具有广阔的应用前景,可持续地开发和利用地热资源中地热水的温度评估是重要的研究课题。人工智能技术已成为矿产和油气资源勘探开发研究的热点和前沿方向,然而在地热资源开发方面,相关研究和应用较少。本文剖析了油气资源开发中大数据与人工智能应用的重要价值,对当前地热资源开发中人工智能技术的应用与探索进行了介绍。以陕西咸阳地热田为例,采用长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)构建了以灌定采模式下单井水温的时间序列模型;采用随机森林和XGBoost算法,建立了多个井地热水温度的预测模型。研究结果表明,本研究建立的机器学习模型在地热水温度预测方面表现优秀,模型准确度均在95%以上,且速度快。该地区地热水温的首要影响因素是取水段顶深,模型验证了渭北断裂带对热储的重要作用。实例应用验证了机器学习模型在解决地热资源开发复杂难题中的优越性,人工智能技术的合理应用能够为地热资源的高效开发和科学降本提质增效提供更多有效的决策依据。Abstract: Geothermal energy as a kind of clean energy has broad application prospects. The temperature assessment of geothermal water in sustainable development and utilization of geothermal resources is an important research topic. Artificial intelligence technology has become a hot spot and frontier direction in the exploration and development of mineral and oil and gas fields, but in the field of geothermal field development, there are few relevant studies. This paper first analyzes the important value of large data and artificial intelligence application in oil and gas field development, and then introduces the application of artificial intelligence in geothermal field development at present. Taking Xianyang geothermal field in Shaanxi province as an example, the single well geothermal water temperature time series model was constructed by using long and short term memory neural network (LSTM) under the predestined production mode. Random forest and XGBoost algorithm were used to predict the groundwater temperature of multiple geothermal wells. The accuracy of the three models was above 95%, and the running speed is fast. The depth at the top of the water intake section is the primary influencing factor of geothermal water temperature in this area. The model verifies that the fault zone plays an important role in heat storage.The application of the example verifies the superiority of machine learning in solving complex problems in geothermal field development, and the reasonable application of artificial intelligence technology can provide more effective decision-making basis for the efficient development of geothermal field and scientific cost reduction, quality improvement and efficiency improvement.
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Key words:
- geothermal development /
- machine learning /
- modeling /
- groundwater /
- hydrothermal prediction
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