气候变化环境下青藏高原含冰冰碛土斜坡水热力耦合特性与长期稳定性

李奇龙; 周佳庆; 李长冬; 刘洪斌; 王雪萦; 吕豪

doi:10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20240079

气候变化环境下青藏高原含冰冰碛土斜坡水热力耦合特性与长期稳定性

doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20240079

1.
中国地质大学（武汉）工程学院，武汉 430074
2.
武汉大学水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室，武汉 430072

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（42277177）；国家重大自然科学基金川藏铁路重大基础科学问题专项（41941017）

详细信息

作者简介:
李奇龙：E-mail：liqilong@cug.edu.cn

通讯作者:
E-mail：jqzhou@whu.edu.cn

中图分类号: P642.22
计量
- 文章访问数: 78
- PDF下载量: 8
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-03-05
- 录用日期: 2024-06-07
- 修回日期: 2024-06-06
- 网络出版日期: 2025-02-18

Coupling characteristics and stability evolution of ice-rich moraine soil slopes on the Tibetan Plateau under climate change

1.
Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
2.
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China

More Information

Author Bio:
E-mail：liqilong@cug.edu.cn

Corresponding author: E-mail：jqzhou@whu.edu.cn

摘要

摘要:
全球气候变暖形势严峻，温度的升高将直接导致广泛分布于青藏高原的各类含冰堆积体与冻结堆积体出现冻结区退化、热融沉降、失稳破坏等一系列工程地质问题。随着青藏地区人类生产实践与工程活动的日益频繁，这些工程地质问题将严重威胁着该地区的人民生命财产安全和重大工程建设进程。本研究建立了考虑冰水相变作用的岩土体渗流-传热-变形耦合数值模型，并通过与已有试验研究以及数值模拟研究的结果进行对比，充分验证了所搭建耦合模拟方法的有效性。基于所搭建的耦合模拟方法，聚焦帕隆藏布流域广泛分布的含冰冰碛土斜坡，结合历史气象数据和气候预测数据（SSP1-2.6与SSP5-8.5两种情景下），开展了自2020-2100年，时长80 a的斜坡多场耦合模拟与长期稳定性计算研究。结果表明，坡体内部各深度土体在长期变暖进程中均呈现不同程度的升温，并进一步导致坡体内部冻结区出现不可逆转的退化，从而导致相应的不可逆转的热融沉降与稳定性下降现象。冻结区的退化与其相应导致的不良工程地质现象受未来不同气候演化模式影响巨大。在SSP5-8.5情景下，持续升温至2080年前后，年均大气温度共抬升了3.84 ℃，坡体内部开始出现冻结区不可逆的退化与随之出现的不可逆沉降现象。在2080年坡体表层出现冻结区永久退化之后，坡体的热融沉降进程与稳定性的下降过程开始出现显著的加速现象，直至2100年，坡体热融沉降可达0.06 m，坡体稳定性较2020年下降了6.3%，这一非线性演化特征深刻反映了含冰土体这一特殊岩土材料在温度升高作用下由量变向质变转变的演化过程。而在SSP1-2.6情景下，冰碛土斜坡并未出现显著的冻结区退化与稳定性劣化的现象。本文构建的嵌入气候模型、考虑了冰水相变的岩土体温度-渗流-应力多场耦合模拟平台，量化评估了不同未来气候情景下坡体退化程度与失稳风险，揭示了气候驱动下含冰冰碛土斜坡水热力多场响应机制，阐明了斜坡长期稳定性演化规律，其成果为高寒高海拔地区地质灾害气候响应和区域地质风险评估奠定了重要理论基础。
- 气候变化 /
- 青藏高原 /
- 含冰冰碛土 /
- 水热力耦合 /
- 斜坡稳定性
Abstract: Objective
The climate warming is severe on a global scale, and the increase in temperature directly leads to a series of engineering geological problems, such as the degradation of frozen regions, thermal thawing-induced subsidence, and the failure of various types of ice-rich and frozen geological structures widely distributed in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau. With the increasing frequency of human production practices and engineering construction in the Qinghai–Tibet region, these problems seriously threaten the safety of people's lives and property as well as the construction process of major projects in the region.
Methods
A coupled numerical model of seepage, heat transfer, and deformation considering the water–ice phase transition was established in this study, and its efficiency and accuracy were validated by comparisons with previous experimental and simulated studies. Focusing on the widely distributed moraine slopes containing ice in the Parlung Tsangpo Basin, combined with historical meteorological data and climate prediction data (under the scenarios of SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), the multi field simulation and long-term stability calculation of slopes were carried out for 80 years from 2020 to 2100.
Results
The results revealed that the soil at different depths inside the slope body was warmed to different degrees under the effect of long-term warming process, which further leads to irreversible degradation of the frozen area inside the slope, resulting in irreversible melt-induced settlement and stability degradation. The degradation of frozen area and accompanying unfavorable geological problems are strongly affected by climate evolution patterns. As the temperature continues to rise until around 2080, the mean annual atmospheric temperature increased by 3.84℃ under SSP5-8.5, and irreversible degradation of the frozen zone and the consequent irreversible subsidence began to occur inside the slope. After the permanent degradation of the frozen zone in the surface layer of the slope in 2080, there was a significant acceleration of thawing-induced subsidence increases and stability decreases. Until 2100, thawing-induced subsidence of the slope could reach 0.06 m, and the stability of the slope decreased by 6.3% compared to 2020. This nonlinear evolution feature reveals the evolution mechanism of ice-rich soil from quantitative changes to qualitative changes under the effect of increasing temperature. However, these degradations did not appear under SSP1-2.6.
Conclusion
In this study, a multiphysics coupled simulation platform of temperature-seepage-deformation behaviors that considers the ice–water phase transition was constructed. It quantitatively evaluated the degree of degradation and instability risk of slopes under different future climate scenarios, revealed the multifield response mechanism and long-term stability evolution of ice-rich moraine slopes driven by climate. The results provide an important theoretical foundation for understanding the climate response to geological hazards in high-cold regions and assessing regional geological risk.
- climate change /
- Tibetan Plateau /
- ice-rich moraine soil /
- thermal-hydraulic-mechanics coupling /
- slope stability

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图 1 研究区灾害点分布概况（滑坡灾害点源自文献[8,33]调研汇编）

Figure 1. Distribution of hazard sites in the study area (Landslide locations are derived from a large number of literature [8,33] research and compilation)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 波密地区2018-2020气温波动特征及根据海拔差修正后的研究区气温波动特征

Figure 2. Temperature fluctuation characteristics of Bomê County from 2018 to 2020 and the temperature fluctuation characteristics of the study area corrected according to altitude difference

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 SSP1-2.6与SSP5-8.5情景下波密地区2020-2100气温抬升示意图

Figure 3. Schematic diagram of temperature rise in Bomê County from 2020 to 2100 under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 考虑冰水相变作用下传热-渗流-变形耦合示意图（实线表示本模型中所考虑的耦合作用，虚线表示本模型所忽略的耦合作用）

Figure 4. Schematic diagram of heat-seepage-deformation coupling under the consideration of ice-water phase transition (solid line represents the coupling considered in this model, dashed line represents the coupling ignored in this model)

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图 5 冰水相变过程示意图

θ_i，θ_w分别为孔隙中冰、水的体积分数；T_pc为相变温度；∆T为地温梯度

Figure 5. Schematic diagram of ice-water phase transition process

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 数值模型验证对比

数据点为JAME^[43]试验结果；虚线为HUANG等^[45]数值模拟验证结果；实线为本研究所建立数值模型的验证结果

Figure 6. Comparison of numerical model verification

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 7 寒区含冰冰碛土斜坡致灾机理示意图

Figure 7. Conceptual diagram of hazard-causing mechanism of ice-rich moraine landslide in cold regions

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 8 模型几何与边界条件以及网格剖分示意图

注：T为大气温度；T₀为初始年份平均气温；ω为角频率；φ为波动函数初相位；$ \Delta T $为升温速率；t为时间；A为温度波动幅值的1/2

Figure 8. Schematic diagram of model geometry and boundary conditions and grid generation

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图 9 不同温度升高情景下2060年含冰冰碛土斜坡地温分布特征

Figure 9. Characteristics of ground temperature distribution in ice-rich moraine slopes under different climate warming during 2060

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 10 不同温度升高情景下2020-2100年含冰冰碛土斜坡地温分布演化特征

Figure 10. Evolution characteristics of ground temperature distribution in ice-rich moraine slopes under different warming scenarios

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 11 升温情景下含冰冰碛土斜坡冻结区占比演化特征

Figure 11. Evolution characteristics of frozen area proportion of ice-rich moraine slopes under climate warming

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图 12 升温情景下含冰冰碛土斜坡冻融位移演化图

Figure 12. Evolution of freeze-thaw displacement of ice-rich moraine slope under climate warming

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 13 升温情景下2060年含冰冰碛土斜坡稳定性波动示意图

Figure 13. Diagram of ice-rich moraine slope stability seasonal fluctuation during 2060 under climate warming

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 14 升温情景下含冰冰碛土斜坡夏季稳定性演化特征

Figure 14. Stability (at summer time) evolution characteristics of ice-rich moraine slopes under climate warming

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表 1 物理力学参数表

Table 1. Physical and mechanical parameters

参数	数值	描述
ρ_s	2600 kg/m³	土体基质密度
ρ_w	1000 kg/m³	水体密度
ρ_i	918 kg/m³	冰体密度
ε₀	0.15	孔隙率
ε_r	0.05	残余含水率
k_u	4×10⁻¹¹ m²	融土渗透系数
μ	1.793×10⁻³ Pa·s	水体动力黏度
Ω	50	冰体阻抗系数
λ_s	1.07 W/(m·℃)	土体导热系数
λ_w	0.63 W/(m·℃)	水体导热系数
λ_i	2.31 W/(m·℃)	冰体导热系数
C_s	0.93 kJ/(kg·℃)	土体热容
C_w	4.2 kJ/(kg·℃)	水体热容
C_i	2.1 kJ/(kg·℃)	冰体热容
L	334.56 kJ/kg	冰水相变潜热
E_s	100 MPa	土体杨氏模量
$ \nu $	0.4	土体泊松比
c_un	60 kPa	融土黏聚力
c_f	200 kPa	冻土黏聚力
φ_un	25 °	融土内摩擦角
φ_f	30 °	冻土内摩擦角

下载: 导出CSV

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