Characteristics of Change in Annual Runoff Volume of Karez in the Turpan Basin in Recent 30 Years
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摘要: 【目的】坎儿井是吐鲁番盆地重要的水利设施。为了缓解坎儿井日趋减少的现状,查明近30年的坎儿井年径流量的变化特征,对于农业灌溉、文化遗产保护和旅游发展等具有重要的意义。【方法】依托1990年至2022年间,研究区域内坎儿井13年不连续的年径流量数据,同时考虑逐年机井开采量和地表水源供水量,运用SPSS 20软件进行深入的统计分析,对缺失的数据进行了科学插补,并通过趋势分析法和突变分析法确定了三者的变化曲线和突变年份。【结果】结果表明:1949年至2023年吐鲁番盆地坎儿井数量由1084条减少至169条(减少速率为16条/年),同时流量由16.11m3/s下降至3.6m3/s;坎儿井年径流量与机井开采量、地表水源供水量、灌溉面积和降水量之间的相关性系数依次为-0.890、-0.149、-0.660、0.764;通过构建坎儿井年径流量与机井开采量、地表水源供水量间的关系模型,实测值与预测值的平均相对误差仅为1.8%,有效解决了数据缺失的问题;此外,机井开采量、地表水源供水量整体呈现波动上升态势,坎儿井年径流量发生上升突变时间为2006年,且突变原因可能与政府实施坎儿井的保护条例有关。【结论】鉴于坎儿井所具有的重要文化价值和工程价值,未来需加大力度保护坎儿井,以促进吐鲁番盆地水资源的可持续利用和高质量发展。Abstract: Karez is an important water conservancy facility in the Turpan Basin.The purpose of this paper is to alleviate the decreasing status of karez , analysing the changing characteristics of annual runoff volume of karez in recent 30 years, which is of great significance for agricultural irrigation, cultural heritage preservation, tourism development and so on. Based on the discontinuous 13 years of annual runoff volume of karez in the study area for the period 1990—2022, as well as year-by-year the exploitation amount of electro-mechanical wells, and water supply from surface water sources, statistical analyses were performed using SPSS 20 software to interpolate missing measurements, and use the trend and mutation analyses to determine their change curves and mutation years. The results of the study indicate: between 1949 and 2023 the number of karez reduced from 1084 to 169,implying that an average of 16 karezs dried up or disappeared each year, while the flow rate declined from 16.11 m3/s to 3.6 m3/s. The correlation coefficients between the annual runoff volume of karez and the exploitation amount of electro-mechanical wells, the amount of water supplied by surface water sources, the irrigated area and precipitation were -0.890, -0.149, -0.660, and 0.764. Through the construction of a model of the relationship between the annual runoff volume of karez and the exploitation amount of electro-mechanical wells and the amount of water supply from surface water sources, and the average relative error between the measured value and the predicted value was 1.8%, which effectively solved the problem of missing data. In addition, the exploitation amount of electro-mechanical wells and the amount of water supplied by surface water sources as a whole showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the annual runoff volume of the karez increased and changed abruptly in 2006, the reasons for the sudden change might be related to the government's implementation of regulations for the protection of karez. Therefore,in view of the important cultural and engineering value of karez , make greater efforts in the future to protect it and promote the sustainable use of water resources and high-quality development in the Turpan Basin.
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Key words:
- the Turpan Basin /
- karez /
- annual runoff volume /
- interpolation /
- mutation analysis
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