基于贝叶斯网络的公路隧道围岩失稳风险评估及系统开发

邹鹤民

doi:10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20240205

基于贝叶斯网络的公路隧道围岩失稳风险评估及系统开发

doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20240205

邹鹤民^,

中铁十六局集团第三工程有限公司, 浙江湖州 313000

基金项目:

中铁十六局集团有限公司科技计划项目 K2023-6B

中国铁路上海局集团有限公司科研项目 2024141

中国铁路上海局集团有限公司科研项目 2022178

详细信息

通讯作者:
邹鹤民, E-mail: xlsky123@sina.com

中图分类号: U458.3;TU457
计量
- 文章访问数: 54
- PDF下载量: 10
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-04-29
- 录用日期: 2024-07-01
- 修回日期: 2024-06-17

Risk assessment and system development of surrounding rock instability in highway tunnel based on Bayesian network

ZOU Hemin^,

China Railway 16^th Bureau Group Third Engineering Co. Ltd., Huzhou Zhejiang 313000, China

More Information

Corresponding author: ZOU Hemin, E-mail: xlsky123@sina.com

摘要

摘要:
随着我国交通运输行业的快速发展, 公路建设所面临的地质条件越来越复杂, 隧道凭借其优越的越岭能力在地质条件复杂的山岭公路建设中得到了广泛的应用。然而随着隧道工程数量的增加, 公路隧道建设过程中, 围岩掉块、塌方等频繁发生, 造成严重的经济损伤和人员伤亡, 因此进行准确的风险评估具有重要工程意义。首先, 针对公路隧道失稳风险评估因素的复杂性和多样性, 归纳统计了40例失稳工程案例, 细化出14个二级指标并构建了风险评估指标体系。然后, 从灾害发生的概率和后果2个方面对风险进行了评估, 采用解释结构模型(interpretative structural modeling, 简称ISM)法构建了层次拓扑图, 并通过因果图法修正建立贝叶斯网络模型, 分别使用统计结果中80%和20%的案例对模型进行了训练和验证。最后, 自主开发了公路隧道失稳风险贝叶斯网络评估系统(risk assessment Bayesian network evaluation system, 简称RIAS), 该系统兼具工程适用性和使用友好性特征, 实现了公路隧道建设过程中的准确、快速围岩失稳风险评估。将构建的公路隧道失稳风险评估系统应用在北固山隧道ZK5+937~ZK5+917等标段的风险评估工作, 预测结果显示隧道的失稳概率为18.2%, 失稳规模为"None(无)", 失稳风险评估等级计算为"低度Ⅰ", 与实际开挖情况相符。本研究创新性地改进了单一风险等级评估的缺陷, 构建了适用于公路隧道失稳风险评估的贝叶斯网络模型, 解决了因工程数据组数不足致使无法借助评估模型实现精准、快速评估的难题。所搭建的贝叶斯网络模型成功通过了北固山隧道的检验, 证明该模型可应用于其他公路隧道工程建设中, 对提高公路隧道建设的安全性和风险预测具有较好工程应用价值。
- 贝叶斯网络模型 /
- 风险评估 /
- ISM法 /
- 快速评估 /
- 系统开发 /
- 公路隧道 /
- 围岩失稳
Abstract: Objective
With the rapid development of China's transportation industry, the geological conditions encountered in highway construction are becoming increasingly complex. Tunnels, owing to their ability to traverse mountainous terrain, are widely used in highway projects through challenging geological environments. However, as the number of tunnel projects has increased, the frequency of rock collapses and landslides during highway tunnel construction has also risen, resulting in significant economic losses and casualties. Therefore, accurate risk assessments have become crucial in tunnel engineering.
Methods
To address this, 40 cases of instability engineering were summarized and analyzed, refining 14 secondary indicators and establishing a comprehensive risk assessment index system. Risk was then assessed in terms of disaster probability and its consequences. The interpretive structural modeling (ISM) method was employed to construct a hierarchical topology diagram, and a Bayesian network model was established and refined using a causality graph method. The model was trained on 80% of the case data and validated with the remaining 20%. Based on this, the highway tunnel instability risk assessment Bayesian network evaluation system (RIAS) was independently developed, offering both engineering applicability and user-friendly functionality, and enabling accurate and rapid assessments of surrounding rock instability during highway tunnel construction.
Results
The system was applied to sections such as ZK5+937~ZK5+917 of the Beigushan Tunnel, predicting an 18.2% probability of tunnel instability with a "None(no risk)" magnitude of instability and a risk level of "Low Ⅰ" -consistent with the actual excavation results.
Conclusion
This study introduces and innovative approach by constructing a Bayesian network model tailored for highway tunnel risk assessments, overcoming the limitations of single-risk-level models and the challenge of insufficient engineering datasets. The model is successfully tested in the Beigushan Tunnel and holds significant potential for application in other highway tunnel projects, enhancingsafety and risk prediction capabilities.
- Bayesian network model /
- risk assessment /
- ISM method /
- rapid assessment /
- system development /
- highway tunnel /
- surrounding rock instability
注释:

所有作者声明不存在利益冲突。

HTML全文

图 1 简单的贝叶斯网络模型

Figure 1. Simple Bayesian network model

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图 2 围岩失稳风险评估案例详细统计

Figure 2. Detailed statistics of surrounding rock instability risk assessment case

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图 3 围岩失稳风险评估统计指标占比图

Figure 3. Proportion of risk assessment statistical indicators of surrounding rock instability

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图 4 围岩失稳风险评估指标影响关系图

S₁, S₂, …, S₁₀均为风险评估指标，具体含义见表 2，下同; ①, ②, ③代表指标之间的影响关系，具体含义见正文

Figure 4. Influence relationship of surrounding rock instability risk assessment indicator

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图 5 围岩失稳风险评估模型

Figure 5. Risk assessment model of surrounding rock instability

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图 6 训练后的公路隧道失稳风险评估的贝叶斯网络模型

Y和N分别代表是和否，用以评价失稳势(概率)；None, Weak, Medium和Strong依次代表致灾性等级由低到高分别为无，弱，中等和强；下同

Figure 6. Trained Bayesian network model for instability risk assessment of highway tunnel

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图 7 基于贝叶斯网络模型的失稳评估系统

Figure 7. Instability risk assessment system of Bayesian network model

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图 8 北固山隧道ZK5+917掌子面照片

Figure 8. Face of Beigushan tunnel ZK5+917

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表 1 围岩失稳风险评估统计指标的参评情况

Table 1. Participation in the statistical indicators of surrounding rock instability risk assessment

一级指标	二级指标	参评率/%
岩体质量因素	岩石强度	35
	围岩级别	60
	岩石风化程度	20
	岩体完整性	42.5
	岩体特性	12.5
地质因素	地形地貌	30
	不良与特殊地质	70
	水文地质	92.5
工程因素	截面积	22.5
	开挖方法	42.5
	支护情况	55
	埋深	60
	隧道跨度	42.5
	单循环进尺	12.5
监控量测因素	—	20.0
勘察设计因素	—	20.0
技术与管理因素	—	65.0

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表 2 围岩失稳风险评估指标

Table 2. Risk assessment indicators of surrounding rock instability

代号	名称	代号	名称
S₁	围岩级别	S₆	埋深
S₂	不良与特殊地质	S₇	隧道跨度
S₃	水文地质	S₈	技术与管理
S₄	开挖方法	S₉	失稳势(失稳概率)
S₅	支护情况	S₁₀	失稳规模(塌方量)

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表 3 围岩失稳风险评估指标量化

Table 3. Risk assessment indicators quantization of surrounding rock instability

致灾性分级	围岩级别S₁		水文地质S₃		开挖方法S₄			支护情况^{[18, 23, 50]}S₅		埋深^[38] S₆/ m
	定性描述	定量描述(岩体基本质量指标BQ)	定性描述	定量描述(24 h降雨量)/mm	—	定性描述		支护时间	支护质量
	定性描述	定量描述(岩体基本质量指标BQ)	定性描述	定量描述(24 h降雨量)/mm	—	地质适配度	开挖扰动程度	支护时间	支护质量
None (无)	Ⅰ Ⅱ	>550 550~451	干燥，地下水不发育	< 9.9(微量降雨和小雨)	双侧壁导坑法 CRD或CD法	优	低	运营期内，已过混凝土养护龄期	优秀/循环进尺	>60
Weak (弱)	Ⅲ	450~351	潮湿，渗水，地下水弱或少发育	10~24.9 (中雨)	环形开挖留核心土法	良	一般	二衬已完成	良好/钢拱架	(40, 60]
Medium (中等)	Ⅳ	350~251	线状涌水，地下水较发育	25.0~49.9 (大雨)	台阶法	合格	较高	初支已完毕	一般/锚杆	(20, 40]
Strong (强)	Ⅴ	≤250	帘幕式或股状涌水，地下水发育	>50(暴雨、大暴雨和特大暴雨)	全断面法	不合格	高	初支未施作完成，或尚未施作支护	差/无施作混凝土	≤20

致灾性分级	不良与特殊地质S₂							隧道跨度^{[18, 51]}S₇		技术与管理^{[12-14, 16, 20, 31]} S₈
	定性描述		定量描述					跨度/ m	截面积/ m²
	定性描述		断层破碎带		偏压			跨度/ m	截面积/ m²
None (无)	无或少见，几乎不利于围岩失稳灾害的发生		不存在或存在小规模的断层破碎带，厚度<2 m		不存在或轻微偏压，偏压 < 10°			[0, 9)	< 45	优
Weak (弱)	一般，不太有利于围岩失稳灾害的发生		存在一定规模的断层破碎带，厚度[2, 5) m		一般偏压，偏压[10°, 20°)			[9, 14)	[45, 70)	良
Medium (中等)	常见，中等有利于围岩失稳灾害的发生		存在较大规模的断层破碎带，厚度[5, 10) m		显著偏压，偏压[20°, 40°]			[14,18]	[70,120]	一般
Strong (强)	频繁，强有利于围岩失稳灾害的发生		存在大规模的断层破碎带，厚度>10 m		严重偏压，偏压>40°			>18	>120	差

致灾性分级			失稳势^[52] S₉/%		失稳规模^[53]S₁₀
致灾性分级			失稳势^[52] S₉/%		塌方高度/m			塌方体积/m³
None(无)			< 25		无或小掉块
Weak(弱)			[25, 50)		[0, 3)			[0, 30)
Medium(中等)			[50,75]		[3,6]			[30,100]
Strong(强)			>75		>6			>100
注：Ⅰ，Ⅱ，Ⅲ，Ⅳ，Ⅴ，Ⅵ表示岩体基本质量级别

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表 4 公路隧道围岩稳定风险评估等级标准

Table 4. Stability grade standards for surrounding rock stability risk assessment of highway tunnel

失稳势/%	致灾性分级
失稳势/%	None(无)	Weak(弱)	Medium(中等)	Strong(强)
>75	高度Ⅲ	高度Ⅲ	极高Ⅳ	极高Ⅳ
[50,75]	中度Ⅱ	高度Ⅲ	高度Ⅲ	极高Ⅳ
[25, 50)	中度Ⅱ	中度Ⅱ	高度Ⅲ	高度Ⅲ
< 25	低度Ⅰ	中度Ⅱ	中度Ⅱ	高度Ⅲ

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表 5 拓扑节点名称对应

Table 5. Names of topological nodes

风险评估指标	拓扑节点名称
围岩级别S₁	SRockLevel
不良与特殊地质S₂	BadSGeologicalCondition
水文地质S₃	HydrogeologicalCondition
开挖方法S₄	ExcavationMethod
支护情况S₅	SupportCondition
埋深S₆	Depth
隧道跨度S₇	Span
技术与管理S₈	TechAndManagement
失稳势S₉	InstabilityPotential
失稳规模S₁₀	CollapseScale

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表 6 贝叶斯网络模型验证数据

Table 6. Validation data of Bayesian network model

案例序号	S₁	S₂	S₃	S₄	S₅	S₆	S₇	S₈	S₉	S₁₀
86	Weak	Strong	None	Weak	Strong	None	Medium	Strong	Y	Strong
87	*	None	Weak	None	Weak	None	None	None	N	None
88	Strong	None	Weak	None	None	None	Weak	None	N	None
89	Strong	None	Weak	None	Weak	None	Weak	None	N	None
90	Medium	Strong	Medium	Medium	Medium	None	Weak	Medium	Y	Strong
91	Strong	Strong	Strong	Weak	Medium	None	Weak	Medium	Y	Medium
92	Medium	Medium	None	Medium	Medium	None	Weak	Medium	N	None
93	Strong	*	Medium	Strong	Medium	*	Medium	*	Y	Strong
94	Strong	Strong	Strong	Weak	*	None	Medium	*	Y	Strong
95	Strong	*	Medium	Medium	*	Weak	Medium	*	Y	Strong
96	Strong	*	None	Medium	Strong	*	Weak	Strong	Y	Strong
注：“*”代表没有明确结果; 下同

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表 7 北固山隧道失稳风险评估参数(ZK5+937~ZK5+917)

Table 7. Parameters of instability risk assessment for Beigushan tunnel (ZK5+937~ZK5+917)

风险评估指标	特征
围岩级别	Ⅲ级(弱)
不良与特殊地质	存在一条宽约0.4 m的破碎带(无)
水文地质	可能存在少量裂隙水，存在大量涌水可能性小(无)
开挖方法	上下台阶法(中等)
支护情况	开挖结束后紧跟施作初支(中等)
埋深	*
隧道跨度	14 m(中等)
技术与管理	优(无)

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