Rapid seismic damage assessment of reservoir dams based on BO-GBDT
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摘要: 水库大坝是重大生命线工程,地震发生后如何快速有效地进行水库大坝的震害评估,对制定抢险方案和灾后修复意义重大。为了快速准确地对遭受地震侵袭的水库大坝的破坏状态进行评估,本文选取汶川8.0级大地震各水库大坝的震损详情,结合大坝的结构特点和地震强度构建样本数据集,使用k近邻插补法对样本的缺失值进行处理,并判断样本特征相关性,提出了一种基于梯度提升树算法的水库大坝震害快速评估模型。使用网格搜索(Grid Search,GS)、粒子群搜索(Particle swarm optimization,PSO)、贝叶斯搜索(Bayesian optimization,BO)和超带搜索(HyperBand Search,HS)四种超参数优化方法对梯度提升树(GBDT)回归算法进行参数优化,根据各模型的性能指标(决定系数R2、均方根误差RMSE、平均误差MAE)进行对比,并对最优模型的特征重要性进行排序。结果表明:BO-GBDT模型能以最短的耗时以及较高精度对水库大坝震害程度进行评估,其决定系数R2高达0.99,特征重要性分数表明最大缝宽是影响最大的因素。使用该模型与基于改进经验统计模型的土坝震害评估模型评估结果对比,准确度有进一步提高,验证了该模型在水库大坝震后震害快速调查评估应用上的可靠性。Abstract: Reservoir dams are major lifeline projects, and how to quickly and effectively conduct seismic damage assessment of reservoir dams after an earthquake is of great significance for the development of rescue programs and post-disaster restoration. In order to quickly and accurately assess the damage status of reservoir dams that have been subjected to earthquakes., we select the details of the earthquake damage of each reservoir dam in Wenchuan 8.0 magnitude earthquake, and construct a sample dataset by combining the structural characteristics of the dams and the intensity of the earthquake. The missing values of the samples are processed using k-nearest neighbor interpolation, and the relevance of the sample features is judged. In this paper, we propose a rapid assessment model of earthquake damage of reservoir dams based on the gradient boosting tree algorithm.Four hyperparametric optimization methods, namely Grid Search (GS), Particle swarm optimization (PSO), Bayesian optimization (BO) and HyperBand Search (HS), are used for the Gradient Boosting Tree (GBDT) regression algorithm for parameter optimization, and the models were compared according to their performance metrics (coefficient of determination R2, root mean square error RMSE, mean error MAE) and ranked in terms of feature importance. The results show that the BO-GBDT model can assessment the degree of earthquake damage of reservoir dams with the shortest time consumption as well as higher accuracy, its regression coefficient R2 is as high as 0.98, and the characteristic importance score indicates that maximum crack width is the most influential factor. Comparison of the assessment results using this model with an earth dam earthquake damage assessment model based on an improved empirical statistical model showed further improvement in accuracy, which verified the reliability of the model in the application of rapid investigation and assessment of post-earthquake damage to reservoir dams.
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