Multi-factor risk assessment of landslide disasters under concentrated rainfall in Xianrendong National Nature Reserve in southern Liaoning Province
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摘要: 摘要:【目的】位于辽宁省南部的仙人洞国家级自然保护区及毗邻区域,近年来由于集中降雨,多次发生滑坡等地质灾害,因此亟需开展地质灾害的空间分布和风险评价研究,这对于地质灾害应急和风险防控具有重要意义。【方法】首先利用SMOTE-Tomek综合采样法耦合XGBoost模型,在地形地貌、地质岩性、水文气象因子和人类工程活动四个方面选取12个指标因子,开展滑坡灾害易发性评价;在此基础上,考虑集中降雨诱发灾害成因,综合累年平均暴雨强度和三日累积降雨量数据,量化滑坡灾害危险性评价;其次,考虑承灾体的易损性特点,绘制研究区滑坡灾害承灾体易损性分区图;最后,以防灾、应灾和灾后重建为准则,综合评价区域防灾减灾能力,结合危险性和承灾体易损性评价结果,构建适用于研究区的多因子滑坡灾害风险评价模型,进而得到研究区滑坡灾害风险性评价分区图。【结果】结果表明:较高及以上风险区面积占研究区总面积的9.8%,主要分布在仙人洞镇的东北部地区,步云山镇的北部地区;中度风险区主要分布在蓉花山镇的中部和南部地区,长岭镇大部和荷花山镇西南部。【结论】未来应重点关注滑坡地质灾害风险较高的仙人洞镇和步云山镇,加强监测和预测工作,为整个研究区的地质灾害防控提供决策支持。Abstract: Abstract:【Objective】Xianrendong National Nature Reserve, located in the south of Liaoning Province, and its adjacent areas, have suffered many geological disasters such as landslides due to concentrated rainfall in recent years, so it is urgent to carry out research on the spatial distribution and risk assessment of geological disasters, which is of great significance for emergency response and risk prevention and control of geological disasters.【Method】Firstly, SMOTE-Tomek comprehensive sampling method was used to couple XGBoost model, and 12 index factors were selected from four aspects: topography, geology and lithology, hydrometeorological factors and human engineering activities, so as to carry out landslide hazard susceptibility evaluation. On this basis, considering the causes of disasters induced by concentrated rainfall, the landslide risk assessment is quantified by combining the average rainstorm intensity for many years and the accumulated rainfall data for three days. Secondly, considering the vulnerability characteristics of disaster-bearing bodies, the vulnerability zoning map of disaster-bearing bodies in the study area is drawn; Finally, taking disaster prevention, disaster response and post-disaster reconstruction as the criteria, the regional disaster prevention and mitigation capacity is comprehensively evaluated, and a multi-factor landslide risk assessment model suitable for the study area is constructed based on the evaluation results of risk and vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, and then the zoning map of landslide risk assessment in the study area is obtained.【Result】The results showed that the area of higher and above risk areas accounted for 9.8% of the total area of the study area, mainly distributed in the northeast of Xianrendong Town and the north of Buyunshan Town. Moderate risk areas are mainly distributed in the central and southern areas of Ronghuashan Town, most of Changling Town and the southwest of Hehuashan Town.【Conclusion】In the future, we should focus on the higher risk areas of geological disasters such as Xianrendong Town and Buyunshan Town, to strengthen monitoring and forecasting work, and provide a decision support for regional disaster prevention and reduction.
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