Citation: | Li Qianqian, Shi Xushan, Chai Bo, Wang Wei. Multiduration critical rainfall prediction model for typhoons and non-typhoon rainfall landslides[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2022, 41(2): 267-273. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2021.0076 |
[1] |
邱文玉. 我国东南沿海台风极端降水特征及成因初探[D]. 南京: 南京信息工程大学, 2014.
Qiu W Y. Characteristics of tropical cyclone extreme precipitation and its preliminary causes in China's Southeast Coast[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, 2014(in Chinese with English abstract).
|
[2] |
Liu D, Liang P, Xie B. Typhoon disaster in China: Prediction, prevention, and mitigation[J]. Natural Hazards, 2009, 49(3): 421-436. doi: 10.1007/s11069-008-9262-2
|
[3] |
欧进萍, 段忠东, 常亮. 中国东南沿海重点城市台风危险性分析[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2002, 11(4): 9-17. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4574.2002.04.002
Ou J P, Duan Z D, Chang L. Typhoon risk analysis for key coastal cities in Southeast China[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2002, 11(4): 9-17(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-4574.2002.04.002
|
[4] |
杨慧娟, 李宁, 雷飏. 我国沿海地区近54 a台风灾害风险特征分析[J]. 气象科学, 2007, 27(4): 413-418. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-0827.2007.04.009
Yang H J, Li N, Lei Y. Features of typhoon in southeast coastal regions of China in the recent 54 years[J]. Scientia Meteorologica Sinica, 2007, 27(4): 413-418(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-0827.2007.04.009
|
[5] |
杨背背, 殷坤龙, 梁鑫, 等. 三峡库区麻柳林滑坡变形特征及演化模拟[J]. 地质科技通报, 2020, 39(2): 122-129. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DZKQ202002014.htm
Yang B B, Yin K L, Liang X, et al. Deformation characteristics and evolution simulation of the Maliulin landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2020, 39(2): 122-129(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DZKQ202002014.htm
|
[6] |
Chang K T, Chiang S H, Lei F. Analysing the relationship between typhoon-triggered landslides and critical rainfall conditions[J]. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2008, 33(8): 1261-1271. doi: 10.1002/esp.1611
|
[7] |
唐红梅, 魏来, 高阳华, 等. 基于逻辑回归的重庆地区降雨型滑坡预报模型[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2013, 24(3): 32-37. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGDH201303008.htm
Tang H M, Wei L, Gao Y H, et al. A prediction model for rainfall-induced landslide based on logistic regression in Chongqing area[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2013, 24(3): 32-37(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGDH201303008.htm
|
[8] |
刘礼领, 殷坤龙. 暴雨型滑坡降水入渗机理分析[J]. 岩土力学, 2008, 29(4): 1061-1066. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-7598.2008.04.039
Liu L L, Yin K L. Analysis of rainfall infiltration mechanism of rainstorm landslide[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2008, 29(4): 1061-1066(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-7598.2008.04.039
|
[9] |
Chen H, Lee C. A dynamic model for rainfall-induced landslides on natural slopes[J]. Geomorphology, 2003, 51(4): 269-288. doi: 10.1016/S0169-555X(02)00224-6
|
[10] |
Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S M, Rossi M, et al. Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern Europe[J]. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 2007, 98(3): 239-267. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/225426960_Rainfall_thresholds_for_the_initiation_of_landslides_in_Central_and_Southern_Europe
|
[11] |
Glade T. Establishing the frequency and magnitude of landslide-triggering rainstorm events in New Zealand[J]. Environmental Geology, 1998, 35(2/3): 160-174. doi: 10.1007/s002540050302
|
[12] |
高华喜, 殷坤龙. 降雨与滑坡灾害相关性分析及预警预报阀值之探讨[J]. 岩土力学, 2007, 28(5): 1055-1060. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-7598.2007.05.039
Gao H X, Yin K L. Discuss on the correlations between landslides and rainfall and threshold for landslide early-warning and prediction[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2007, 28(5): 1055-1060(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-7598.2007.05.039
|
[13] |
Keefer D K, Wilson R C, Mark R K, et al. Real-time landslide warning during heavy rainfall[J]. Science, 1987, 238: 921-925. doi: 10.1126/science.238.4829.921
|
[14] |
Glade T. Applyingprobability determination to refine landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds using an empirical "antecedent daily rainfall model"[J]. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2000, 157(6/8): 1059-1079. doi: 10.1007/s000240050017
|
[15] |
李长江, 麻土华, 孙乐玲, 等. 降雨型滑坡预报中计算前期有效降雨量的一种新方法[J]. 山地学报, 2011, 29(1): 81-86. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SDYA201101011.htm
Li C J, Ma T H, Sun L L, et al. A new approach to calibrate antecedent precipitation for rainfall-triggering landslide forecast[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 2011, 29(1): 81-86(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SDYA201101011.htm
|
[16] |
卢操, 晏鄂川, 张瑜, 等. 降雨作用下青石镇政府后山堆积层滑坡渗流与稳定性[J]. 地质科技通报, 2020, 39(2): 139-147. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DZKQ202002016.htm
Lu C, Yan E C, Zhang Y, et al. Seepage and stability of the colluvial landslide on the back hill of Qingshi Town Government under rainfall[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2020, 39(2): 139-147(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DZKQ202002016.htm
|
[17] |
池永翔, 陈凡. 台风暴雨条件下滑坡稳定性影响因素分析[J]. 地质学刊, 2017, 41(2): 297-304. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-3636.2017.02.020
Chi Y X, Chen F. Influencing factor analysis of landslide stability in typhoon rainstorm[J]. Journal of Geology, 2017, 41(2): 297-304(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-3636.2017.02.020
|
[18] |
唐军峰, 唐雪梅, 肖鹏, 等. 库水位升降与降雨作用下大型滑坡体渗流稳定性分析[J]. 地质科技通报, 2021, 40(4): 153-161. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DZKQ202104014.htm
Tang J F, Tang X M, Xiao P, et al. Analysis of seepage stability of large-scale landslide under water-level fluctuation and rainfall[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2021, 40(4): 153-161(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DZKQ202104014.htm
|
[19] |
Chang K T, Chiang S H, Hsu M L. Modeling typhoon- and earthquake-induced landslides in a mountainous watershed using logistic regression[J]. Geomorphology, 2007, 89(3/4): 335-347. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169555X07000049
|
[20] |
Crozier M J, Eyles R J. Assessing the probability of rapid mass movement[C]//Anon. Proceeding third Australia-New Zealand Conference on Geomechanics. Wellington: New Zealand Institution of Engineers-Proceedings of Technical Groups, 1980.
|
[21] |
Cannon S H, Ellen S D. Rainfall conditions for abundant debris avalanches, San Francisco Bay region, California[J]. California Geology, 1985, 38(12): 267-272.
|
[22] |
唐亚明, 薛强, 毕俊擘, 等. 降雨入渗诱发黄土滑塌的模式及临界值初探[J]. 地质论评, 2013, 59(1): 97-106. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DZLP201301013.htm
Tang Y M, Xue Q, Bi J B, et al. Preliminary study on loess landslide rainfall triggering modes and thresholds[J]. Geological Review, 2013, 59(1): 97-106(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DZLP201301013.htm
|
[23] |
王恒希, 王燕, 李利平. 以丽水市为例探究地质灾害与地震的关联性[J]. 科技创新与应用, 2019(12): 49-51. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-CXYY201912020.htm
Wang H X, Wang Y, Li L P. Taking Lishui area as an example to explore the correlation between geological disasters and earthquakes[J]. Technology Innovation and Application, 2019(12): 49-51(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-CXYY201912020.htm
|
[24] |
刘晓汝, 谢作威. 2019年超强台风"利奇马"引发浙江特大暴雨过程分析[J]. 气象科学, 2020, 40(1): 89-96. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKX202001009.htm
Liu X R, Xie Z W. Analysis of rainstorm caused by super typhoon "Lekima" in Zhejiang Province of 2019[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences, 2020, 40(1): 89-96(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKX202001009.htm
|
[25] |
雷祥义, 屈红军. 西安白鹿塬边黄土滑坡的稳定性与人类活动[J]. 地质论评, 1991, 37(3): 258-264. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DZLP199103007.htm
Lei X Y, Qu H J. The stability of loess landslides on the edges of the Bailu Tableland, Xi'an and their relationship with human activities[J]. Geological Review, 1991, 37(3): 258-264(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DZLP199103007.htm
|
[26] |
Zhang G, Chen L, Dong Z. Real-time warning system of regional landslides supported by WEBGIS and its application in Zhejiang Province, China[J]. Procedia Earth and Planetary Science, 2011, 2(S1): 68-69. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1878522011000415
|