| Citation: | Tang Huiming. Advance and prospects of major landslides prediction and forecasting[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2022, 41(6): 1-13. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2022.0203
|
China is one of the countries with the most serious landslide disasters in the world. Major landslides seriously threaten people's lives and property and influence the implementation of major national strategies. Accurate and reliable landslide prediction is the premise of disaster prevention and mitigation, and it is also a significant worldwide scientific issue that needs to be solved urgently. Aiming at predicting major landslides, this paper focuses on the core scientific issues of landslide evolution processes, and physical-mechanical mechanisms, and condenses three key scientific issues: landslide initiation correlation mechanisms, landslide initiation physical-mechanical mechanisms, and the theory of landslide process prediction. To solve these issues, the following research ideas are proposed: based on large field experimental sites and guided by system theory, cybernetics, and information theory, technical means, including on-site prototype testing and monitoring, large-scale physical model testing, and multifield coupling simulation, which are applied to determine the initiation classification of major landslides according to the landslide evolution process; the physical-mechanical mechanism of locked-segment unlocking-type landslides, static liquefied-type landslides, and hydrodynamic pressure-driven landslides are revealed; the corresponding initiation criterion is established; the numerical prediction mode and real-time forecasting platform for major landslides are constructed; landslide prediction theory based on physical-mechanical processes is established. It will lay the geological, mechanical, and physical foundation for the prediction of the above three types of landslides, ensuring the successful smooth implementation of major national strategies while meeting the major national needs for disaster prevention and mitigation.
| [1] |
黄润秋, 许强. 中国典型灾难性滑坡[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2008.
Huang R Q, Xu Q, Catastrophic landslides in China[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2008(in Chinese).
|
| [2] |
崔鹏, 何思明, 姚令侃, 等. 汶川地震山地灾害形成机理与风险控制[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2011.
Cui P, He S M, Yao L N, et al. Mechanism of formation and risk control of mountain hazards in Wenchuan Earthquake[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2011(in Chinese).
|
| [3] |
殷跃平, 张永双. 汶川地震工程地质与地质灾害[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2013.
Yin Y P, Zhang Y S, Wenchuan Earthquake engineering geology and geological hazards[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2013(in Chinese).
|
| [4] |
彭建兵, 林鸿州, 王启耀, 等. 黄土地质灾害研究中的关键问题与创新思路[J]. 工程地质学报, 2014, 22(4): 684-691. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2014.04.014
Peng J B, Lin H Z, Wang Q Y, et al. The critical issues and creative concepts in mitigation research of loess geological hazards[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2014, 22(4): 684-691(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2014.04.014
|
| [5] |
唐辉明. 斜坡地质灾害预测与防治的工程地质研究[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2015.
Tang H M. Engineering geological study on prediction and prevention of geological hazards on slopes[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2015(in Chinese).
|
| [6] |
唐辉明, 章广成. 库水位下降条件下斜坡稳定性研究[J]. 岩土力学, 2005, 26(增刊2): 11-15. doi: 10.16285/j.rsm.2005.s2.009
Tang H M, Zhang G C. A study on slope stability during reservoir water level falling[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2005, 26(S2): 11-15(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.16285/j.rsm.2005.s2.009
|
| [7] |
唐辉明, 李德威, 胡新丽. 龙山门断裂带活动特征与工程区域地壳稳定性评价理论[J]. 工程地质学报, 2009, 17(2): 145-152. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9665.2009.02.001
Tang H M, Li D W, Hu X L. Faulting characteristics of Wenchuan Earthquake and evaluation theory of regional crustal stability for engineering[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2009, 17(2): 145-152(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9665.2009.02.001
|
| [8] |
彭建兵, 马润勇, 卢全中, 等. 青藏高原隆升的地质灾害效应[J]. 地球科学进展, 2004, 19(3): 457-466. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2004.03.018
Peng J B, Ma R Y, Lu Q Z, et al. Geological hazards effects of uplift of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. Advance in Earth Sciences, 2004, 19(3): 457-466(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2004.03.018
|
| [9] |
唐辉明. 工程地质学基础[M]. 北京: 化学工业出版社, 2008.
Tang H M. Fundamentals of engineering geology[M]. Beijing: Chemical Industry Press, 2008(in Chinese).
|
| [10] |
王恭先, 王应先, 马惠民. 滑坡防治100例[M]. 北京: 人民交通出版社, 2008.
Wang G X, Wang Y X, Ma H M. 100 cases of landslide prevention and control[M]. Beijing: People's Transportation Press, 2008(in Chinese).
|
| [11] |
Huang R Q, Chen G Q, Guo F, et al. Experimental study on the brittle failure of the locking section in a large-scale rock slide[J]. Landslides, 2016, 13(3): 583-588. doi: 10.1007/s10346-015-0673-3
|
| [12] |
Tang H M, Yong R, Eldin M A. Stability analysis of stratified rock slopes with spatially variable strength parameters: the case of Qianjiangping landslide[J]. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 2016, 76(3): 839-853.
|
| [13] |
Stanley T, Kirschbaum D B. A heuristic approach to global landslide susceptibility mapping[J]. Natural Hazards, 2017, 87(1): 145-164. doi: 10.1007/s11069-017-2757-y
|
| [14] |
自然资源部地质灾害技术指导中心. 全国地质灾害通报(2019年)[R]. 北京: 国土资源部, 2020: 1-9.
China Geological Survey. Nationalgeohazard bulletin(2019)[R]. Beijing: Ministry of Land and Resources of the People's Republic of China, 2020: 1-9(in Chinese).
|
| [15] |
Tang H M, Wasowski J, Juang C H. Geohazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China lessons learned from decades of research[J]. Engineering Geology, 2019, 261: 105267. doi: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2019.105267
|
| [16] |
Tang H M, Crosta G B, Wang F W. Special issue on "Advances in engineering geology for landslides and slope stability problems: Part Ⅰ"[J]. Engineering Geology, 2014, 182: 1-108. doi: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2014.10.014
|
| [17] |
Tang H M, Zou Z X, Xiong C R, et al. An evolution model of large consequent bedding rockslides, with particular reference to the Jiweishan rockslide in Southwest China[J]. Engineering Geology, 2015, 186: 17-27. doi: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2014.08.021
|
| [18] |
许强, 郑光, 李为乐, 等. 2018年10月和11月金沙江白格两次滑坡-堰塞堵江事件分析研究[J]. 工程地质学报, 2018, 26(6): 1534-1551. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GCDZ201806016.htm
Xu Q, Zheng G, Li W L, et al. Study on successive landslide damming events of Jinsha River in Baige Village on Octorber 11 and November 3, 2018[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2018, 26(6): 1534-1551(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GCDZ201806016.htm
|
| [19] |
Cojean R, Cai Y J. Analysis and modeling of slope stability in the Three-Gorges Dam reservoir(China): The case of Huangtupo landslide[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 2011, 8(2): 166-175. doi: 10.1007/s11629-011-2100-0
|
| [20] |
唐辉明, 鲁莎. 三峡库区黄土坡滑坡滑带空间分布特征研究[J]. 工程地质学报, 2018, 26(1): 129-136. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2018.01.014
Tang H M, Lu S. Research on the spatial distribution of slip zone of Huangtupo landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir area[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2018, 26(1): 129-136(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2018.01.014
|
| [21] |
彭建兵, 兰恒星, 钱会, 等. 宜居黄河科学构想[J]. 工程地质学报, 2020, 28(2): 189-201. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-129
Peng J B, Lan H X, Qian H, et al. Scientific research framework of livable Yellow River[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2020, 28(2): 189-201(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2020-129
|
| [22] |
黄润秋. 20世纪以来中国的大型滑坡及其发生机制[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2007, 26(3): 433-454. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-6915.2007.03.001
Huang R Q. Large-scale landslides and their sliding mechanisms in China since the 20th Century[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2007, 26(3): 433-454(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-6915.2007.03.001
|
| [23] |
殷跃平, 朱继良, 杨胜元. 贵州关岭大寨高速远程滑坡-碎屑流研究[J]. 工程地质学报, 2010, 18(4): 445-454. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9665.2010.04.002
Yin Y P, Zhu J N, Yang S Y. Investigation of a high speed and long run-out rockslide-debris flow at Dazhai in Guanling of Guizhou Province[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2010, 18(4): 445-454(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9665.2010.04.002
|
| [24] |
殷跃平, 王文沛, 张楠, 等. 强震区高位滑坡远程灾害特征研究: 以四川茂县新磨滑坡为例[J]. 中国地质, 2017, 44(5): 827-841. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DIZI201705002.htm
Yin Y P, Wang W P, Zhang N, et al. Long runout geological disaster initiated by the ridge-top rockslide in a strong earthquake area: A case study of the Xinmo landslide in Maoxian County, Sichuan Province[J]. Geology in China, 2017, 44(5): 827-841(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DIZI201705002.htm
|
| [25] |
Yan Y, Cui Y F, Tian X, et al. Seismic signal recognition and interpretation of the 2019 "7.23" Shuicheng landslide by seismogram stations[J]. Landslides, 2020, 17: 1191-1206. doi: 10.1007/s10346-020-01358-x
|
| [26] |
孟兴民, 陈冠, 郭鹏, 等. 甘肃白龙江流域活动滑坡的分布与其影响因子[C]//中国第四纪科学研究会. 第十一届全国第四纪学术会议论文集. 北京: 科学出版社, 2014.
Meng X M, Chen G, Guo P, et al. Distribution of active landslides and their influence factors in the Bailong River Basin, Gansu[C]//Chinese Association of Quaternary Research. Proceedings of the eleventh national quaternary academic conference. Beijing: Science Press, 2014(in Chinese).
|
| [27] |
Zhang M S, Dong Y, Sun P P. Impact of reservoir impoundment-caused groundwater level changes on regional slope stability: A case study in the Loess Plateau of Western China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2012, 66(6): 1715-1725. doi: 10.1007/s12665-012-1728-6
|
| [28] |
Chigira M, Yokoyama O. Weathering profile of non-welded ignimbrite and the water infiltration behavior within it in relation to the generation of shallow landslides[J]. Engineering Geology, 2005, 78: 187-207. doi: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2004.12.008
|
| [29] |
张永双, 郭长宝, 姚鑫, 等. 青藏高原东缘活动断裂地质灾害效应研究[J]. 地球学报, 2016, 37(3): 277-286. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXB201603004.htm
Zhang Y S, Guo C B, Yao X, et al. Research on the geohazard effect of active fault on the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Acta Geoscientica Sinica, 2016, 37(3): 277-286(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXB201603004.htm
|
| [30] |
Huang R Q, Fan X M. The landslide story[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2013, 6(5): 325-326. doi: 10.1038/ngeo1806
|
| [31] |
Turner A K, Schuster R L. Landslides: Investigation and mitigation[M]. [S. l.]: Transportation Research Board Special Report, 1996.
|
| [32] |
Van Asch T W J, Buma J, Van Beek L P H. A view on some hydrological triggering systems in landslides[J]. Geomorphology, 1999, 30(1/2): 25-32.
|
| [33] |
Huang M S, Fan X P, Wang H R. Three-dimensional upper bound stability analysis of slopes with weak interlayer based on rotational-translational mechanisms[J]. Engineering Geology, 2017, 223: 82-91. doi: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2017.04.017
|
| [34] |
Leroueil S. Natural slopes and cuts: Movement and failure mechanisms[J]. Géotechnique, 2001, 51(3): 197-243. doi: 10.1680/geot.2001.51.3.197
|
| [35] |
Zheng G D, Lang Y H, Miyahara M, et al. Iron oxide precipitate in seepage of groundwater from a landslide slip zone[J]. Environmental Geology, 2007, 51: 1455-1464. doi: 10.1007/s00254-006-0442-7
|
| [36] |
Hu W, Xu Q, Wang G H, et al. Shear resistance variations in experimentally sheared mudstone granules: A possible shear-thinning and thixotropic mechanism[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2017, 44(21): 11040-11050.
|
| [37] |
李守定, 李晓, 张年学, 等. 三峡库区宝塔滑坡泥化夹层泥化过程的水岩作用[J]. 岩土力学, 2006, 27(10): 1841-1846. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-7598.2006.10.041
Li S D, Li X, Zhang N X, et al. Water-rock interaction of clay gouged interacalation sludging process of Baota lanslides in Three Gorges Reservoir area[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2006, 27(10): 1841-1846(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-7598.2006.10.041
|
| [38] |
Furuki H, Chigira M. Structural features and the evolutionary mechanisms of the basal shear zone of a rockslide[J]. Engineering Geology, 2019, 260: 105214. doi: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2019.105214
|
| [39] |
Varnes D J. Slope movement types and processes[M]//Schuster R L, Krizek R J. Landslides, analysis and control, special report 176. Washington D C: Transportation Research Board, National Academy of Sciences, 1978: 11-33.
|
| [40] |
Cruden D M, Varnes D J. Landslide types and processes[M]//Turner A K, Schuster R L. Landslides: Investigation and mitigation. Washington D C: National Academy Press, Transportation Research Board Special Report, 1996, 247: 36-75.
|
| [41] |
Hungr O, Leroueil S, Picarelli L. The varnes classification of landslide types: An update[J]. Landslides, 2014, 11(2): 167-194. doi: 10.1007/s10346-013-0436-y
|
| [42] |
张倬元, 王士天, 王兰生. 工程地质分析原理[M]. 北京: 地质出版社, 1984.
Zhang Z Y, Wang S T, Wang L S. Principles of engineering geological analysis[M]. Beijing: Geology Press, 1984(in Chinese).
|
| [43] |
刘广润, 晏鄂川, 练操. 论滑坡分类[J]. 工程地质学报, 2002, 10(4): 339-342. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9665.2002.04.001
Liu G R, Yan E C, Lian C. Discussion on classification of landslides[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2002, 10(4): 339-342(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9665.2002.04.001
|
| [44] |
彭建兵, 杜东菊, 毛彦龙, 等. 高速飞行弹射型滑坡: 黄河积石峡水电站库区Ⅴ#滑坡成因[C]//中国地质学会工程地质专业委员会. 第五届全国工程地质大会文集. 北京: 地震出版社, 1996: 129-136,
Peng J B, Du D J, Mao Y L, et al. High-speed flying ejector landslide: Causes of V# landslide in reservoir area of Yellow River Jishixia Hydropower Station[C]//Engineering Geology Committee of Chinese Geological Society. Proceedings of the fifth national conference on engineering geology. Beijing: Seismological Press, 1996: 129-136.
|
| [45] |
崔鹏, 苏凤环, 邹强, 等. 青藏高原山地灾害和气象灾害风险评估与减灾对策[J]. 科学通报, 2015, 60(32): 3067-3077. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KXTB201532007.htm
Cui P, Su F H, Zou Q, et al. Risk assessment and disaster reduction strategies for mountainous and meteorological hazards in Tibetan Plateau[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2015, 60(32): 3067-3077(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KXTB201532007.htm
|
| [46] |
张倬元, 黄润秋. 岩体失稳前系统的线性和非线性状态及破坏时间预报的"黄金分割数"法[C]//中国地质学会工程地质专业委员会. 全国第三次工程地质大会论文选集: 下卷. 成都: 成都科技大学出版社, 1988: 1233-1240.
Zhang Z Y, Huang R Q. The "golden mean" method for predicting the linear and nonlinear state and damage time of pre-stabilization systems of rock masses[C]//Engineering Geology Committee of Chinese Geological Society. The Third National Engineering Geology Conference: Next volume. Chengdu: University of Electronic Science and Technology of China Press, 1988: 1233-1240.
|
| [47] |
殷跃平, 刘传正, 陈红旗, 等. 2013年1月11日云南镇雄赵家沟特大滑坡灾害研究[J]. 工程地质学报, 2013, 21(1): 6-15. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9665.2013.01.002
Yin Y P, Liu C Z, Chen H Q, et al. Investigation on catastrophic landslide of January 11, 2013 at Zhaojiagou, Zhenxiong County, Yunnan Province[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2013, 21(1): 6-15(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9665.2013.01.002
|
| [48] |
胡广韬. 灾害性滑坡启程剧动与行程高速的机理[J]. 灾害学, 1987(1): 17-28. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZHXU198701003.htm
Hu G T. On the mechanisms of initial intense moving and high speed travelling of disastrous landslides[J]. Disaster Science, 1987(1): 17-28(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZHXU198701003.htm
|
| [49] |
程谦恭, 胡厚田, 胡广韬, 等. 高速岩质滑坡临床弹冲与峰残强降复合启程加速动力学机理[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2000, 19(2): 173-176. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-6915.2000.02.010
Cheng Q G, Hu H T, Hu G T, et al. A study of complex accelerated dynamics mechanism of highspeed landslide by elastic rocky impulse and peak-residual strength drop[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2000, 19(2): 173-176(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-6915.2000.02.010
|
| [50] |
泮晓华, 薛雷, 秦四清, 等. 潜在锁固型滑坡的类型、形成条件和预判方法研究[J]. 工程地质学报, 2014, 22(6): 1159-1167. doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2014.06.021
Pan X H, Xue L, Qin S Q, et al. Types, formation conditions and pre-decision method for large landslides with potential locked patches[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2014, 22(6): 1159-1167(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2014.06.021
|
| [51] |
刘汉东, 张艺冰, 鲁丽萍. 豫西锁固型滑坡类型研究[J]. 华北水利水电大学学报: 自然科学版, 2018, 39(6): 1-7. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5634.2018.06.001
Liu H D, Zhang Y B, Lu L P. Types of the locked section landslide in the western Henan Province[J]. Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power: Natural Science Edition, 2018, 39(6): 1-7(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5634.2018.06.001
|
| [52] |
Donati D, Stead D, Elmo D, et al. A preliminary investigation on the role of brittle fracture in the kinematics of the 2014 San Leo landslide[J]. Geosciences, 2019, 9(6): 256. doi: 10.3390/geosciences9060256
|
| [53] |
姜彤, 雷家华. 基于图像相关分析的锁固型滑坡模型试验方法[J]. 华北水利水电大学学报: 自然科学版, 2018, 39(6): 41-45. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5634.2018.06.008
Jiang T, Lei J H. Locked landslide model test method based on image correlation analysis[J]. Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power: Natural Science Edition, 2018, 39(6): 41-45(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5634.2018.06.008
|
| [54] |
秦四清, 王媛媛, 马平. 崩滑灾害临界位移演化的指数律[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2010, 29(5): 873-880. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSLX201005005.htm
Qin S Q, Wang Y Y, Ma P. Exponential laws of critical displacement evolution for landslides and avalanches[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2010, 29(5): 873-880(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSLX201005005.htm
|
| [55] |
薛雷, 秦四清, 泮晓华, 等. 锁固型斜坡失稳机理及其物理预测模型[J]. 工程地质学报, 2018, 26(1): 179-192. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GCDZ201801020.htm
Xue L, Qin S Q, Pan X H, et al. Mechanism and physical prediction model of instability of the locked-segment type slopes[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2018, 26(1): 179-192(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GCDZ201801020.htm
|
| [56] |
王思敬. 地球内外动力耦合作用与重大地质灾害的成因初探[J]. 工程地质学报, 2002, 10(2): 115-117. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9665.2002.02.001
Wang S J. Coupling of earth's endogenic and exogenic geological processes and origins on serious geological disasters[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2002, 10(2): 115-117(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9665.2002.02.001
|
| [57] |
李同录, 习羽, 侯晓坤. 水致黄土深层滑坡灾变机理[J]. 工程地质学报, 2018, 26(5): 1113-1120. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GCDZ201805001.htm
Li T L, Xi Y, Hou X K. Mechanism of surface water infiltration induced deep loess landslide[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2018, 26(5): 1113-1120(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GCDZ201805001.htm
|
| [58] |
蒋明镜, 孙若晗, 李涛, 等. 微生物处理砂土不排水循环三轴剪切CFD-DEM模拟[J]. 岩土工程学报, 2020, 42(1): 20-28. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YTGC202001005.htm
Jiang M J, Sun R H, Li T, et al. CFD-DEM simulation of microbially treated sands under undrained consolidated cyclic triaxial tests[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2020, 42(1): 20-28(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YTGC202001005.htm
|
| [59] |
Yamamuro J A, Lade P V. Static liquefaction of very loose sands[J]. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 1997, 34(6): 905-917. doi: 10.1139/t97-057
|
| [60] |
许领, 戴福初, 闵弘, 等. 泾阳南塬黄土滑坡类型与发育特征[J]. 地球科学: 中国地质大学学报, 2010, 35(1): 155-160. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQKX201001019.htm
Xu L, Dai F C, Min H, et al. Loess landslide types and topographic features at South Jingyang Plateau, China[J]. Earth Science: Journal of China University of Geosciences, 2010, 35(1): 155-160(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQKX201001019.htm
|
| [61] |
Peng J B, Wang S K, Wang Q Y, et al. Distribution and genetic types of loess landlisdes in China[J]. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 2019, 170: 329-350. doi: 10.1016/j.jseaes.2018.11.015
|
| [62] |
Ma J W, Tang H M, Liu X, et al. Probabilistic forecasting of landslide displacement accounting for epistemic uncertainty: A case study in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China[J]. Landslides, 2018, 15(6): 1145-1153.
|
| [63] |
Tang H M, Li C D, Hu X L, et al. Deformation response of the Huangtupo landslide to rainfall and the changing levels of the Three Gorges Reservoir[J]. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 2015, 74(3): 933-942.
|
| [64] |
周创兵, 李典庆. 暴雨诱发滑坡致灾机理与减灾方法研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2009, 24(5): 477-487. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DXJZ200905004.htm
Zhou C B, Li D Q. Advances in rainfall-induced landslides mechanism and risk mitigation[J]. Advance in Earth Science, 2009, 24(5): 477-487(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DXJZ200905004.htm
|
| [65] |
李典庆, 周创兵, 陈益峰, 等. 边坡可靠度分析的随机响应面法及程序实现[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2010, 29(8): 1513-1523. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSLX201008003.htm
Li D Q, Zhou C B, Chen Y F, et al. Reliability analysis of slope using stochastic response surface method and code implementation[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2010, 29(8): 1513-1523(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSLX201008003.htm
|
| [66] |
杨背背, 殷坤龙, 梁鑫, 等. 三峡库区麻柳林滑坡变形特征及演化模拟[J]. 地质科技通报, 2020, 39(2): 122-129, doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2020.0213
Yang B B, Yin K L, Liang X, et al. Deformation characteristics and evolution simulation of the Maliulin landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir area[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2020, 39(2): 122-129(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2020.0213
|
| [67] |
兰恒星, 周成虎, 王苓涓, 等. 地理信息系统支持下的滑坡-水文耦合模型研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2003, 22(8): 1309-1314. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSLX200308016.htm
Lan H X, Zhou C H, Wang L J, et al. GIS based landslide stability and hydrological distribution coupled model[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2003, 22(8): 1309-1314(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSLX200308016.htm
|
| [68] |
李晓, 张年学, 廖秋林, 等. 库水位涨落与降雨联合作用下滑坡地下水动力场分析[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2004, 23(21): 3714-3720. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSLX20042100V.htm
Li X, Zhang N X, Liao Q L, et al. Analysis on hydrodynamic field influenced by combination of rainfall and reservoir level fluctuation[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2004, 23(21): 3714-3720(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSLX20042100V.htm
|
| [69] |
Qi S W, Yan F Z, Wang S J, et al. Characteristics, mechanism and development tendency of deformation of Maoping landslide after commission of Geheyan Reservoir on the Qingjiang River, Hubei Province, China[J]. Engineering Geology, 2006, 86: 37-51.
|
| [70] |
Li C D, Tang H M, Ge Y F, et al. Application of back-propagation neural network on bank destruction forecasting for accumulative landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir region, China[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2014, 28(6): 1465-1477.
|
| [71] |
李长冬, 龙晶晶, 姜茜慧, 等. 水库滑坡成因机制研究进展与展望[J]. 地质科技通报, 2020, 39(1): 67-77. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2020.0108
Li C D, Long J J, Jiang Q H, et al. Advance and prospect of formation mechanism for reservoir landslides[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2020, 39(1): 67-77(in Chinese with English abstract). doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2020.0108
|
| [72] |
Saito M. Forecasting the time of occurrence of a slope failure[C]//Anon. Proceedings of 6th International Conference. [S. l.]: [s. n.], 1965: 220-227.
|
| [73] |
Tang H M. GIS system of landslide risk prediction for Badong County in the reservoir district of Three Gorges Project, China[C]//Anon. 18th Vancouver Geotechnical Society Symposium: Proceedings of 2005 International Conference on Landslide and Foundations. Greece: [s. n.], 2005: 2078-2086.
|
| [74] |
Ayalew L, Yamagishi H. The application of GIS-based logistic regression for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Kakuda-Yahiko Mountains, Central Japan[J]. Geomorphology, 2005, 65(1/2): 15-31.
|
| [75] |
秦四清. 斜坡失稳的突变模型与混沌机制[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2000, 19(4): 486-492. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSLX200004028.htm
Qin S Q. Nonlinear catastrophy model of slope instability and chaotic dynamics mechanism[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2000, 19(4): 486-492(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSLX200004028.htm
|
| [76] |
Li C D, Tang H M, Hu X L, et al. Landslide prediction based on wavelet analysis and cusp catastrophe[J]. Journal of Earth Science, 2009, 20(6): 971-977.
|
| [77] |
李天斌, 陈明东, 王兰生. 滑坡实时跟踪预报[M]. 成都: 成都科技大学出版社, 1999.
Li T B, Chen M D, Wang L S. Real-time tracing prediction of landslide[M]. Chengdu: University of Electronic Science and Technology of China Press, 1999(in Chinese).
|
| [78] |
易顺民, 晏同珍. 滑坡定量预测的非线性理论方法[J]. 地学前缘, 1996, 3(1/2): 77-85. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DXQY601.010.htm
Yi S M, Yan T Z. The nonlinear theory of the quantitative landslide prediction and its methods[J]. Earth Science Frontiers, 1996, 3(1/2): 77-85(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DXQY601.010.htm
|
| [79] |
黄润秋, 许强. 斜坡失稳时间的协同预测模型[J]. 山地研究, 1997, 15(1): 7-12. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SDYA199701001.htm
Huang R Q, Xu Q. Synergetic prediction model of slope instability[J]. Mountain Research, 1997, 15(1): 7-12(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-SDYA199701001.htm
|
| [80] |
伍法权, 王年生. 一种滑坡位移动力学预报方法探讨[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 1996, 7(增刊1): 38-41. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGDH6S1.006.htm
Wu F Q, Wang N S. An embryo of dynamical analysis method on landslide displacement[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 1996, 7(S1): 38-41(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGDH6S1.006.htm
|
| [81] |
贺可强, 郭璐, 陈为公. 降雨诱发堆积层滑坡失稳的位移动力评价预测模型研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2015, 34(增刊2): 4204-4215. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSLX2015S2070.htm
He K Q, Guo L, Chen W G. Research on displacement dynamic evaluation and forecast model of colluvial landslides induced by rainfall[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2015, 34(S2): 4204-4215(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSLX2015S2070.htm
|
| [82] |
Chen H R, Qin S Q, Xue L, et al. A physical model predicting instability of rock slopes with locked segments along a potential slip surface[J]. Engineering Geology, 2018, 242: 34-43.
|
| [83] |
王念秦, 王永锋, 罗东海, 等. 中国滑坡预测预报研究综述[J]. 地质论评, 2008, 54(3): 355-361. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DZLP200803013.htm
Wang N Q, Wang Y F, Luo D H, et al. Review of landslide prediction and forecast research in China[J]. Geological Review, 2008, 54(3): 355-361(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DZLP200803013.htm
|
| [84] |
许强, 汤明高, 徐开祥, 等. 滑坡时空演化规律及预警预报研究[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2008, 27(6): 1104-1112. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSLX200806005.htm
Xu Q, Tang M G, Xu K X, et al. Research on space-time evolution laws and early warning-prediction of landslides[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2008, 27(6): 1104-1112(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSLX200806005.htm
|
| [85] |
Segalini A, Valletta A, Carri A. Landslide time-of-failure forecast and alert threshold assessment: A generalized criterion[J]. Engineering Geology, 2018, 245: 72-80.
|
| [86] |
Intrieri E, Carlà T, Gigli G. Forecasting the time of failure of landslides at slope-scale: A literature review[J]. Earth-Science Reviews, 2019, 193: 333-349.
|
| [87] |
Tang H M, Li C D, Hu X L, et al. Evolution characteristics of the Huangtupo landslide based on in situ tunneling and monitoring[J]. Landslides, 2015, 12(3): 511-521.
|
| [88] |
许强, 黄润秋, 李秀珍. 滑坡时间预测预报研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2004, 19(3): 478-483. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DXJZ200403020.htm
Xu Q, Huang R Q, Li X Z. Research progress in time forecast and prediction of landslides[J]. Advance in Earth Science, 2004, 19(3): 478-483(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DXJZ200403020.htm
|
| [89] |
Bauer H S, Schwitalla T, Wulfmeyer V, et al. Quantitative precipitation estimation based on high-resolution numerical weather prediction and data assimilation with WRF: A performance test[J]. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 2015, 67: 1-29.
|
| [90] |
Liu W, He S. Comprehensive modelling of runoff-generated debris flow from formation to propagation in a catchment[J]. Landslides, 2020, 17(7): 1529-1544.
|
| [91] |
何满潮. 滑坡地质灾害远程监测预报系统及其工程应用[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2009, 28(6): 1081-1090. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSLX200906003.htm
He M C. Real-time remote monitoring and forecasting system for geological disasters of landslides and its engineering application[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2009, 28(6): 1081-1090(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YSLX200906003.htm
|
| [92] |
施斌, 顾凯, 魏广庆, 等. 地面沉降钻孔全断面分布式光纤监测技术[J]. 工程地质学报, 2018, 26(2): 356-364. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GCDZ201802010.htm
Shi B, Gu K, Wei G Q, et al. Full section monitoring of land subsidence borehole using distributed fiber optic sensing techniques[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2018, 26(2): 356-364(in Chinese with English abstract). https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GCDZ201802010.htm
|
Copyright © 2010Editorial Department of Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology
Supported by:
Beijing Renhe Information Technology Co., Ltd.
DownLoad:
