| Citation: | Zhang Shu, Tang Huiming, Gong Wenping, Zou Zongxing. Landslide numerical forecasting mode based on physical- mechanical mechanism: Overviews, challenges and opportunities[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2022, 41(6): 14-27. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2022.0252
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Landslide forecasting and prediction is a frontier scientific issue that has received widespread attention in the field of geohazard prevention and control. The current research framework focuses on the deformation behavior characteristics and external dynamic factors of landslides and faces the dual bottleneck problems of low universality and low prediction accuracy.Based on the current research status, this paper systematically clarifies the connotation of the rheological-mechanical behavior and strength weakening effect of the sliding zone, explicates the evolution mechanism of the progressive failure of the landslide, summarizes the types of landslide prediction models, and introduces the typical models among them.Based on the comprehensively existing achievements, it is pointed out that the main problems of the current research are: ①the physical-mechanical models of landslide evolution are required to be extended; ②the prediction and forecasting models fail to fully integrate with landslide evolution and physical-mechanical model; ③the compatibility problem between physical-mechanical model prediction and multi-field monitoring data have not been practically solved. Given the above problems, the challenges of landslide prediction and forecasting models based on physical-mechanical processes are elaborated. Based on multidisciplinary integration and intersection, a new research strategy for landslide forecasting study is proposed. The new strategy requires the establishment of a physical-mechanical model of the landslide evolution process based on the structural properties and rheological-mechanical behavior of the slip zone. On this basis, a numerical forecasting mode for landslides is established by closely integrating real-time multi-field monitoring data that enables real-time dynamic updating of landslide physical-mechanical processes. This strategy is designed to achieve a theoretical and technical breakthrough.
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