CSCD来源期刊

北大中文核心期刊

中国科技核心期刊

地学领域高质量科技期刊分级T2区（2023）

世界期刊影响力指数报告Q1区（2023）

Volume 43 Issue 1
Jan.  2024
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents
Article Navigation >  Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology  > 2024  >  43(1): 262-274
GONG Quanbing, YIN Kunlong, XIAO Changgui, CHEN Lixia, YAN Liangxuan, ZENG Taorui, LIU Xiepan. Double-index model of landslide meteorological warning based on the I-D threshold[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2024, 43(1): 262-274. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20220254
Citation: GONG Quanbing, YIN Kunlong, XIAO Changgui, CHEN Lixia, YAN Liangxuan, ZENG Taorui, LIU Xiepan. Double-index model of landslide meteorological warning based on the I-D threshold[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2024, 43(1): 262-274. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20220254
shu

Double-index model of landslide meteorological warning based on the I-D threshold

doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20220254
  • 1a.

    China University of Geosciences(Wuhan) Faculty of Engineering, Wuhan 430074, China

  • 1b.

    China University of Geosciences(Wuhan) School of Geophysics and Geomatics, Wuhan 430074, China

  • 1c.

    China University of Geosciences(Wuhan) Institute of Geological Survey, Wuhan 430074, China

  • 2.

    Zhejiang Center of Geological Environment Monitoring, Hangzhou 310007, China

  • 3.

    Observation & Research Station of Geohazards in Zhejiang, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hangzhou 310007, China

More Information
  • Author Bio:

    GONG Quanbing, E-mail: qbgong@cug.edu.cn

  • Corresponding author: YIN Kunlong, E-mail: yinkl@cug.edu.cn
  • Received Date: 20 Jun 2022
  • Accepted Date: 31 Oct 2022
  • Rev Recd Date: 29 Oct 2022
    Abstract
  • Objective

    Determining the rainfall threshold is of great significance in controlling the risk of rainfall-induced landslides.

    Methods

    A total of 98 rainfall-induced landslides in Quzhou, Zhejiang Province, were used to study the rainfall threshold. Based on the statistical analysis of the rainfall data from 1970 to 2019, the rainfall threshold models established by the I-D, E-D and E-I curves are compared and analyzed. Subsequently, a landslide meteorological warning double-index model with daily rainfall R0 and 5-day effective rainfall R5 as warning indices was established based on the I-D model. Finally, the rationality and reliability of the model were confirmed using historical rainfall and landslide data.

    Results

    The results show that: (1) I-D is better than E-D and E-I in predicting rainfall-induced landslides; (2) The double-index model reasonably forecasts the average annual warning times of red, orange and yellow landslides in Quzhou, which are 1.5, 3.2 and 9.3, respectively; 20 landslides can be accurately predicted by the double-index model, of which 15 landslides are red and orange, and the model has successfully predicted all eight landslides in 2014; (3) The 7 hysteretic landslides used to test the prediction ability of the model all fell into the warning area, including 3 orange, 3 yellow and 1 blue events.

    Conclusion

    The results proposed in this paper are helpful for the meteorological warning of landslides in Quzhou and provide new methods for government risk assessment and management.

     

    • The authors declare that no competing interests exist.
    FullText(HTML)
  • loading
    • References(38)
  • [1]
    殷坤龙, 汪洋, 唐仲华. 降雨对滑坡的作用机理及动态模拟研究[J]. 地质科技情报, 2002, 22(1): 75-78.

    YIN K L, WANG Y, TANG Z H. Mechanism and dynamic simulation of landslide by precipitation[J]. Geological Science and Technology Information, 2002, 22(1): 75-78. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [2]
    吴益平, 张秋霞, 唐辉明, 等. 基于有效降雨强度的滑坡灾害危险性预警[J]. 地球科学, 2014, 39(7): 889-895.

    WU Y P, ZHANG Q X, TANG H M, et al. Landslide hazard warning based on effective rainfall intensity[J]. Earth Science, 2014, 39(7): 889-895. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [3]
    黄发明, 陈佳武, 范宣梅, 等. 降雨型滑坡时间概率的逻辑回归拟合及连续概率滑坡危险性建模[J]. 地球科学, 2022, 47(12): 4609-4628.

    HUANG F M, CHEN J W, FAN X M, et al. Logistics regression fitting of rainfall-induced landslide occurrence probability and continuous landslide hazard prediction modelling[J]. Earth Science, 2022, 47(12): 4609-4628. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [4]
    GUZZETTI F, PERUCCACCI S, ROSSI M, et al. The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: An update[J]. Landslides, 2008, 5(1): 3-17. doi: 10.1007/s10346-007-0112-1
    [5]
    YANG H J, WEI F, MA Z, et al. Rainfall threshold for landslide activity in Dazhou, Southwest China[J]. Landslides, 2020, 17(1): 61-77. doi: 10.1007/s10346-019-01270-z
    [6]
    HE S, WANG J, LIU S. Rainfall event-duration thresholds for landslide occurrences in China[J]. Water, 2020, 12(2): 494. doi: 10.3390/w12020494
    [7]
    MA T, LI C, LU Z, et al. Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the initiation of landslides in Zhejiang Province, China[J]. Geomorphology, 2015, 245: 193-206. doi: 10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.05.016
    [8]
    KEEFER D K, WILSON R C, MARK R K, et al. Real-time landslide warning during heavy rainfall[J]. Science, 1987, 238(4829): 921-925. doi: 10.1126/science.238.4829.921
    [9]
    OSANAI N, SHIMIZU T, KURAMOTO K, et al. Japanese early-warning for debris flows and slope failures using rainfall indices with Radial Basis Function Network[J]. Landslides, 2010, 7(3): 325-338. doi: 10.1007/s10346-010-0229-5
    [10]
    KONG V W W, KWAN J S H, PUN W K. Hong Kong's landslip warning system: 40 years of progress[J]. Landslides, 2020, 17(6): 1453-1463. doi: 10.1007/s10346-020-01379-6
    [11]
    麻土华, 李长江, 孙乐玲, 等. 浙江地区引发滑坡的降雨强度-历时关系[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2011, 22(2): 20-25.

    MA T H, LI C J, SUN L L, et al. Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for landslides in Zhejiang region, China[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2011, 22(2): 20-25. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [12]
    高华喜, 殷坤龙. 降雨与滑坡灾害相关性分析及预警预报阀值之探讨[J]. 岩土力学, 2007, 28(5): 1055-1060.

    GAO H X, YIN K L. Discuss on the correlation between landslides and rainfall and threshold for landslide early-warning and prediction[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2007, 28(5): 1055-1060. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [13]
    张珍, 李世海, 马力. 重庆地区滑坡与降雨关系的概率分析[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2005, 24(17): 3185-3191.

    ZHANG Z, LI S H, MA L. Probability analysis of relationship between landslide and rainfall in Chongqing area[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2005, 24(17): 3185-3191. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [14]
    李媛. 四川雅安市雨城区降雨诱发滑坡临界值初步研究[J]. 水文地质工程地质, 2005, 32(1): 26-29.

    LI Y. Preliminary Study on precipitation threshold of precipitation-induced landslides in Ya'an Yucheng District, Sichuan Province[J]. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology, 2005, 32(1): 26-29. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [15]
    陈丽霞, 殷坤龙, 刘礼领, 等. 江西省滑坡与降雨的关系研究[J]. 岩土力学, 2008, 29(4): 1114-1120.

    CHEN L X, YIN K L, LIU L L, et al. Analysis of relationship between landslide and rainfall in Jiangxi Province[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2008, 29(4): 1114-1120. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [16]
    林巍, 李远耀, 徐勇, 等. 湖南慈利县滑坡灾害的临界降雨量阈值研究[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2020, 37(2): 48-54.

    LIN W, LI Y Y, XU Y, et al. Rainfall threshold of rainfall-triggered landslides in Cili County, Hunan Province[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2020, 37(2): 48-54. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [17]
    赵海燕, 殷坤龙, 陈丽霞, 等. 基于有效降雨阈值的澧源镇滑坡灾害危险性分析[J]. 地质科技通报, 2020, 39(4): 85-93. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2020.0431

    ZHAO H Y, YIN K L, CHEN L X, et al. Landslide hazard analysis of Liyuan Town based on effective rainfall threshold[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2020, 39(4): 85-93. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2020.0431
    [18]
    朱文慧, 晏鄂川, 邹浩, 等. 湖北省黄冈市降雨型滑坡气象预警判据[J]. 地质科技通报, 2022, 41(6): 45-53. doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2022.0132

    ZHU W H, YAN E C, ZOU H, et al. Meteorological early warning criterion of rainfall-induced landslide in Huanggang City, Hubei Province[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2022, 41(6): 45-53. (in Chinese with English abstract) doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.2022.0132
    [19]
    鲍其云, 麻土华, 李长江, 等. 浙江62个丘陵山区县引发滑坡的降雨强度-历时阈值[J]. 科技通报, 2016, 32(5): 48-55, 95.

    BAO Q Y, MA T H, LI C J, et al. Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the initiation of landslides in 62 hilly and mountainous counties of Zhejiang Province[J]. Bulletin of Science and Technology, 2016, 32(5): 48-55, 95. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [20]
    黄发明, 曹中山, 姚池, 等. 基于决策树和有效降雨强度的滑坡危险性预警[J]. 浙江大学学报: 工学版, 2021, 55(3): 472-482.

    HUANG F M, CAO Z S, YAO C, et al. Landslides hazard warning based on decision tree and effective rainfall intensity[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University: Engineering Science Edition, 2021, 55(3): 472-482. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [21]
    ROSSI M, LUCIANI S, VALIGI D, et al. Statistical approaches for the definition of landslide rainfall thresholds and their uncertainty using rain gauge and satellite data[J]. Geomorphology, 2017, 285: 16-27. doi: 10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.02.001
    [22]
    HUTCHINSON J N. Landslides: Causes, consequences and environment[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews, 1988, 7(1): 107-108.
    [23]
    谢剑明, 刘礼领, 殷坤龙, 等. 浙江省滑坡灾害预警预报的降雨阀值研究[J]. 地质科技情报, 2003, 22(4): 101-105.

    XIE J M, LIU L L, YIN K L, et al. Study on rainfall threshold of landslide disaster early warning and prediction in Zhejiang Province[J]. Geological Science and Technology Information, 2003, 22(4): 101-105. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [24]
    SEGONI S, ROSSI G, ROSI A, et al. Landslides triggered by rainfall: A semi-automated procedure to define consistent intensity-duration thresholds[J]. Computers & Geosciences, 2014, 63: 123-131.
    [25]
    BRUNETTI M T, PERUCCACCI S, ROSSI M, et al. Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in Italy[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2010, 10(3): 447-458. doi: 10.5194/nhess-10-447-2010
    [26]
    KIM S W, CHUN K W, KIM M, et al. Effect of antecedent rainfall conditions and their variations on shallow landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds in South Korea[J]. Landslides, 2021, 18(2): 569-582. doi: 10.1007/s10346-020-01505-4
    [27]
    GUZZETTI F, PERUCCACCI S, ROSSI M, et al. Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern Europe[J]. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 2007, 98(3/4): 239-267.
    [28]
    刘谢攀, 殷坤龙, 肖常贵, 等. 基于I-D-R阈值模型的滑坡气象预警[J/OL]. 地球科学: 1-15[2022-08-24]. http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/42.1874.P.20220708.1511.002.html

    LIU X P, YIN K L, XIAO C G. Meteorological early warning of landslide based on I-D-R threshold model. [J/OL]. Earth Science: 1-15[2022-08-24]. http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/42.1874.P.20220708.1511.002.html. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [29]
    CAINE N. The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows[J]. Geografiska Annaler(Series A, Physical Geography), 1980, 62(1/2): 23-27. doi: 10.2307/520449
    [30]
    GIANNECCHINI R, GALANTI Y, BARSANTI M. Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for triggering shallow landslides in the Eastern Ligurian Riviera (Italy)[C]//Lollino G, Giordan D, Crosta G B, et al. Engineering Geology for Society and Territory, Vol 2: Landslide Processes. Cham: Springer Int Publishing Ag, 2015: 1581-1584.
    [31]
    MARIN R J, VELÁSQUEZ M F, GARCÍA E F, et al. Assessing two methods of defining rainfall intensity and duration thresholds for shallow landslides in data-scarce catchments of the Colombian Andean Mountains[J]. Catena, 2021, 206: 105563. doi: 10.1016/j.catena.2021.105563
    [32]
    LI W, LIU C, SCAIONI M, et al. Spatio-temporal analysis and simulation on shallow rainfall-induced landslides in China using landslide susceptibility dynamics and rainfall I-D thresholds[J]. Science in China(Earth Sciences), 2017, 60(4): 720-732. doi: 10.1007/s11430-016-9008-4
    [33]
    MELILLO M, BRUNETTI M T, PERUCCACCI S, et al. Rainfall thresholds for the possible landslide occurrence in Sicily (Southern Italy) based on the automatic reconstruction of rainfall events[J]. Landslides, 2016, 13(1): 165-172. doi: 10.1007/s10346-015-0630-1
    [34]
    DIKSHIT A, SARKAR R, PRADHAN B, et al. Estimating rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in the Bhutan Himalayas[J]. Water, 2019, 11(8): 1616. doi: 10.3390/w11081616
    [35]
    PICIULLO L, CALVELLO M, CEPEDA J M. Territorial early warning systems for rainfall-induced landslides[J]. Earth-Science Reviews, 2018, 179: 228-247. doi: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2018.02.013
    [36]
    刘礼领, 殷坤龙. 暴雨型滑坡降水入渗机理分析[J]. 岩土力学, 2008, 29(4): 1061-1066.

    LIU L L, YIN K L. Analysis of rainfall infiltration mechanism of rainstorm landslide[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2008, 29(4): 1061-1066. (in Chinese with English abstract)
    [37]
    HUANG F, CHEN J, LIU W, et al. Regional rainfall-induced landslide hazard warning based on landslide susceptibility mapping and a critical rainfall threshold[J]. Geomorphology, 2022, 408: 108236. doi: 10.1016/j.geomorph.2022.108236
    [38]
    RAHIMI A, RAHARDJO H, LEONG E C. Effect of antecedent rainfall patterns on rainfall-induced slope failure[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 2011, 137(5): 483-491. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000451
    • Relative Articles
    • Supplements(0)
    • Cited By
  • 加载中

Catalog

    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索
    Get Citation
    PDF
    XML

    Article Metrics

    Article Views(544) PDF Downloads(90) Cited by()
    Proportional views
    Related

    Copyright © 2010Editorial Department of Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology    

    Supported by: Beijing Renhe Information Technology Co., Ltd.    

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return