Multi-factor risk assessment of landslide disasters under concentrated rainfall in Xianrendong National Nature Reserve in southern Liaoning Province

Abstract:【Objective】Xianrendong National Nature Reserve, located in the south of Liaoning Province, and its adjacent areas, have suffered many geological disasters such as landslides due to concentrated rainfall in recent years, so it is urgent to carry out research on the spatial distribution and risk assessment of geological disasters, which is of great significance for emergency response and risk prevention and control of geological disasters.【Method】Firstly, SMOTE-Tomek comprehensive sampling method was used to couple XGBoost model, and 12 index factors were selected from four aspects: topography, geology and lithology, hydrometeorological factors and human engineering activities, so as to carry out landslide hazard susceptibility evaluation. On this basis, considering the causes of disasters induced by concentrated rainfall, the landslide risk assessment is quantified by combining the average rainstorm intensity for many years and the accumulated rainfall data for three days. Secondly, considering the vulnerability characteristics of disaster-bearing bodies, the vulnerability zoning map of disaster-bearing bodies in the study area is drawn; Finally, taking disaster prevention, disaster response and post-disaster reconstruction as the criteria, the regional disaster prevention and mitigation capacity is comprehensively evaluated, and a multi-factor landslide risk assessment model suitable for the study area is constructed based on the evaluation results of risk and vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, and then the zoning map of landslide risk assessment in the study area is obtained.【Result】The results showed that the area of higher and above risk areas accounted for 9.8% of the total area of the study area, mainly distributed in the northeast of Xianrendong Town and the north of Buyunshan Town. Moderate risk areas are mainly distributed in the central and southern areas of Ronghuashan Town, most of Changling Town and the southwest of Hehuashan Town.【Conclusion】In the future, we should focus on the higher risk areas of geological disasters such as Xianrendong Town and Buyunshan Town, to strengthen monitoring and forecasting work, and provide a decision support for regional disaster prevention and reduction.