| Citation: | ZHENG Defeng，PAN Meiyi，GAO Min，et al. Multi-factor risk assessment of landslide disasters under concentrated rainfall in Xianrendong national nature reserve in southern Liaoning Province[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology，2025，44（2）：1-11 doi: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20240509
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Xianrendong National Nature Reserve in southern Liaoning Province and its adjacent areas have experienced numerous geological disasters, such as landslides, during periods of concentrated rainfall in recent years. However, the vulnerability and risk assessment of landslide disasters in this region under the influence of concentrated rainfall have been rarely explored. Therefore, it is urgent to conduct in-depth research, which is of great significance for effectively reducing the harm of geological disasters in the reserve and enhancing the capacity for emergency response and risk prevention and control.
Firstly, using the SMOTE-Tomek comprehensive sampling method coupled with an XGBoost model, 12 indices including topography, geology and lithology, hydrometeorology, and human engineering activities are deeply analyzed to obtain the evaluation results of landslide susceptibility. Secondly, focusing on the impact of short-term concentrated rainfall and continuous rainfall, daily rainfall data from four weather stations surrounding the study area are used to calculate annual average rainstorm intensity from 2018 to 2023 and three-day cumulative rainfall as risk assessment indicators, enabling the quantitative assessment of landslide hazards. On this basis, considering the vulnerability characteristics of the disaster-bearing body and regional disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities, a multi-factor landslide disaster risk assessment model suitable for the study area is constructed, resulting in a landslide disaster risk zoning map.
The results show that high-risk and above areas account for approximately 10% of the total study area, primarily distributed in the northeast of Xianrendong Town, the north of Buyunshan Town, the north of Changling Town, and the southwest of Hehuashan Town.
In the future, efforts should focus on high-risk areas such as Xianrendong Town, strengthening monitoring and early warning systems to provide decision support for the prevention and control of geological disasters across the entire study area.
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